[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Event: Tonight into early Monday, A complex
weather pattern will prevail across the southeast Gulf of Mexico
and the far western Atlantic as an upper level trough extending
from the southeast United States to the east-central Gulf of
Mexico shifts eastward across Florida and NW Caribbean into the
western Atlantic. At the same time, surface low pressure
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N85W will move
eastward across the SE Gulf through Monday. These features are
currently supporting scattered moderate convection over the SE
Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean, Cuba, south Florida and the
Florida Keys/Straits. This activity will move slowly eastward
bringing the potential for flash flooding over the mountainous
terrain of western Cuba. Please refer to your local weather
forecast offices for more information.

Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently over
the southeast Gulf of Mexico will move eastward into the
western Atlantic Monday. Gale force winds associated with the
low will affect the area NE of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon
as the low tracks NE. This low will be accompanied by scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms that will affect the
northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm
on either sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the heavy rainfall event.

A stationary front extends from near the Straits of Florida near
25N80W to a 1014 mb low near 23N85W. A surface trough extends
from the low into the NW Caribbean. To the west, scatterometer
data depicted a surface trough extending along 22N between 89W-
97W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted north of the
front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 1 to 3 ft in the
northeast Gulf. Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air
moving in across the basin as surface ridging builds in the wake
of the frontal system.

The low pressure area will track east-northeast across the SE
Gulf of Mexico tonight. High pressure will continue building
across the basin and prevail through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the heavy rainfall event.

The pressure gradient between 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting
fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds over the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate winds over the western Caribbean.
Scattered showers are embedded within this trade wind flow in
the central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean tonight. The
aerial extent of the strong trades will decrease early Mon, and
prevail over the south-central Caribbean for the remainder
period. Active weather, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the NW Caribbean tonight as a complex low
just NE of the Yucatan Peninsula continues moving ENE across the
SE Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features above for more details
about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic, along with the
heavy rainfall event.

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a
cold front from 31N54W to 28N62W, then becomes stationary from
that point to 25N80W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of these fronts mainly west of 66W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N39W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail north of 22N and east of the front, with
mainly fresh trades, pulsing to strong, S of 22N over the open
waters of the tropical Atlantic.

The front over the west Atlantic will gradually weaken through
Mon. Low pressure in the SE Gulf of Mexico will move into the SW
forecast waters tonight. The low will move NNE across the area
before moving N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold
front across the forecast waters through Tue. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms will affect the Bahamas and adjacent waters
tonight through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

$$

ERA
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