[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Event: Tonight into early Monday, A complex
weather pattern will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico and the far
western Atlantic as an upper level trough extending from the
southeast United States to the central Gulf of Mexico shifts
eastward across Florida and NW Caribbean into the western
Atlantic. At the same time, surface low pressure northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W will shift eastward across the SE
Gulf reaching the Bahamas late tonight into Monday. These features
are currently supporting scattered to numerous moderate
convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean, western
Cuba, south Florida and the Florida Keys. This activity will move
slowly eastward with persistent heavy rain bringing the potential
for flash flooding over the mountainous terrain of western Cuba.
Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more
information.

Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico will move eastward into the
western Atlantic Monday. Gale force winds associated with the low
will affect the area NE of the Bahamas he northern Bahamas Monday
morning through Mon evening as the low tracks NE. This low will
be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that will
affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through
Mon evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near Guinea
Bissau and Guinea at 11N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from
04N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 35W
and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator
to 02N between 34W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the heavy rainfall event.

A stationary front extends from near the Straits of Florida to
north of the Yucatan Channel to 1013 mb low pressure northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W, with a trailing cold front
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted by afternoon scatterometer data north of the
front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 1 to 3 ft in the
northeast Gulf. Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air
moving in across the basin west of 90W, with plentiful moisture to
the east as described above.

The low pressure area will track east-northeast across the SE
Gulf of Mexico tonight. High pres will start to build into the
region Monday in the wake of the front, and prevail through
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the heavy rainfall event.

The pressure gradient between 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near Cartagena and high pressure north of the Caribbean
is supporting fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean
and moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers
are embedded within this trade wind flow in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Low pressure of 1012 mb is over the NW
Caribbean near 18N84W with scattered showers and thunderstorms
noted within 180 nm of the low, mainly in the eastern semicircle.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central, and portions of the eastern
Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
over most of the remainder of the basin. The aerial extent of the
strong trades will decrease early on Mon, prevailing over the
south-central Caribbean for the remainder period. Otherwise,
tradewind swell is expected SE of the Windward Islands tonight
through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features above for more details
about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic, along with the
heavy rainfall event.

A cold front extends from 31N57W to across the central Bahamas
where it becomes stationary as it extends through the Straits of
Florida. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are noted
north of 21N and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near
32N38W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 22N and east of
the front, with mainly fresh trades, pulsing to strong, S of 22N
over the open waters of the tropical Atlantic. Isolated trade
wind showers are embedded within the trade wind flow.

The cold front will move E of the area tonight, however fresh to
strong winds will continue and extend to the northern Bahamas as a
complex low pressure in the SE Gulf of Mexico enters the central
offshore waters early on Mon. The low will move N of the area Mon
night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters
through Tue. The front will stall from northeast to southwest
across the SW N Atlantic through the middle of the week, with
fresh to strong winds persisting north of the old boundary through
the end of the week. Low pressure may develop along the remnants
of the front by the end of the week, with these features
potentially retrograding to the northwest.

$$
Lewitsky
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