[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently between
South Florida and the Bahamas near 25N79W will low track NNE. A
brief gale is possible over the north central waters this
afternoon. This low will be accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms that will affect the northern Bahamas
and adjacent waters today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
25N80W to a 1013 mb in the Yucatan Channel with surface trough
extending from the low into the NW Caribbean. Scattered to
numerous showers continue to impact the far SE Gulf waters,
including the Florida Straits. To the west, a surface trough
extends along 21N/22N between 92W- 97W. Fresh to locally strong
winds, and seas in the 5-7 ft range, are noted NW of the surface
low in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, with 4-5
ft seas elsewhere.

The low pres in the Yucatan channel will drift SE today while
gradually weakening. Scattered showers will continue to impact the
SE Gulf early today. High pres will start to build into the
region today, and prevail through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area has weakened as surface troughing is
starting to prevail. This has loosened the pressure gradient over
the Caribbean waters. Aerial coverage of fresh to strong winds is
now mainly over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds
prevail over the western Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds
are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
over the western Caribbean.

Low pres will move from the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean
today. This will help for scattered to numerous showers across
the NW Caribbean. The low will drift southward today while
weakening. Elsewhere, surface troughing will prevail N of the area
through the middle of the week with a weak pressure gradient over
the Caribbean. This will result in a small area of fresh to strong
trades across the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features above for more details
about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N63W, then becomes
stationary to an area of low pres that has developed just E of S
Florida near 25N79W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is
noted in the vicinity of the low as well as the stationary front.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N57W. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas in the 6-8 ft range, prevail N of the stationary
front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of Hispaniola. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail elsewhere N
of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds with seas in the
6-8 ft range prevail. Isolated showers are embedded within the
tradewind flow.

The area of low pressure between S Florida and the Bahamas will
shift NNE today, moving N of the area tonight. The low will drag a
cold front across the forecast waters through Tue. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will affect the Bahamas and adjacent
waters today. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

$$
AL/ERA
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