[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
from 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 02N33W
to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 165 nm on either sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extend across the southern portion of the
basin, analyzed as a cold front from 25N80W to 24N86W to 23N92W.
The front becomes stationary from that point to 19N96W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front mainly west of 90W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin in
the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are
noted north of the front, while moderate southerly winds prevail
south of the front.

The front will continue move south of the area later today.
Fresh to strong south winds are expected in the NW Gulf tonight
and Fri ahead of another cold front, expected to reach the
northern Gulf Fri night. A low may develop along the front in
the SW Gulf on Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf
the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the central
Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over most of the
remainder of the basin through Mon. Smoke from agricultural
fires in northern Central America may cause haze and reduced
visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N71W to 25N80W.
Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. To the
east, high pressure extends across the central Atlantic,
centered near 28N48W. The tail end of a front extends from
31N26W to 22N39W with scattered showers. A 1018 mb high is
centered east of this front near 24N32W.

The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 31N63W to the
SE Bahamas tonight, then stall on Fri over the SE waters. Fresh
to strong winds are expected both sides of the front. Another
cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida by Sat
morning and extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Sat night.
Strong winds over northern waters are possible Sun night and Mon
as developing low pressure along the frontal boundary moves
across south Florida into the Bahamas. Surface ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

$$

ERA
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