[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
from 11N15W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 01N35W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 08N between 14W and 19W, and from 01N to 05N
between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from western Cuba to across the Yucatan
Channel to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, with the boundary
stalling. Scattered showers are noted along the front, mainly E
of 90W. A surface trough is noted in the SW Gulf 24N92W to 18N96W
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with
the parent 1023 mb high centered over northern Mississippi.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin,
except gentle to moderate in the vicinity of the trough.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected in the NW Gulf
tonight and Fri ahead of another cold front, forecast to reach the
northern Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front. A low pressure may develop along the front in
the SW Gulf on Sat, and track ENE toward South Florida on Sun.
High pressure will build in from the Carolinas early next week.

Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze
and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean,
and moderate to fresh winds over most of the remainder of the
basin. The aerial extent of the trades will increase Sat into
Sun, covering most of the waters S of 18N and E of 80W. Seas are
forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft. Trades will diminish somewhat
early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may
cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and
near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic cold front extends from near Bermuda to across
the central Bahamas to the N coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and
vigorous thunderstorms are noted within 180-240 nm ahead of the
front. E of the front, 1023 mb high pressure is noted near 29N49W
W-SW to near the Turks and Caicos. The tail end of a dissipated
front extends from 32N24W to 25N38W, with a weak 1017 mb high
noted S of the boundary near 23N31W. Scattered showers are noted
near the decaying front.

The western Atlantic cold front is forecast to stall on Fri over
the SE portion of the offshore waters. Fresh to strong winds are
expected both sides of the front. Another cold front is forecast
to move off northern Florida Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to
the NW Bahamas by Sat night. Strong winds over northern waters
are possible Sun night and Mon as developing low pressure along
the frontal boundary moves across south Florida into the Bahamas.
Surface ridging is expected to prevail across the remainder of
the basin.

$$
Lewitsky
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