[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
04N23W, to 03N30W, 01N40W, to 01N49W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of
the ITCZ between 18W and 20W, from 50 nm to 100 nm to the north
of the ITCZ between 28W and 30W, from 75 nm to 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 38W and 40W, and from 135 nm to 250 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 41W and the coasts of Brazil
and French Guiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the entire area.
A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 30N75W, to
the SE coast of Florida near 26N80W, passing south of Lake
Okeechobee, to 25N82W on the SW coast of Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico near 25N91W, curving southwestward as a
stationary front to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong was covering the
area from 20N to 23N between 90W and 96W. The precipitation has
been weakening during the last few hours. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in the Yucatan Peninsula, and near
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.  The cold front
will move south of the area later today. Fresh to strong north
winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico this morning. Fresh
to strong south winds are expected in the NW Gulf on tonight and
Friday. A second cold front is forecast to enter the northern
waters on Friday night. It is possible that a low pressure
center may develop along the front in the SW Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may
cause haze and reduced visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the northern sections of
Colombia, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the
northern half of Costa Rica. Upper level SW wind flow moves from
the eastern Pacific Ocean, across Central America from Nicaragua
northward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and toward
Hispaniola. Scattered to broken clouds are moving across the
open waters of the Caribbean Sea, with the upper level wind flow.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and
moderate to fresh winds in most of the remainder of the basin,
through Sunday. Smoke, from agricultural fires in northern
Central America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N73W to
30N75W, to the SE coast of Florida near 26N80W. The front
continues across Florida, south of Lake Okeechobee, into the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 300 nm to the SE of the cold front,
from 26N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between Andros Island and Cuba. Isolated moderate also is
elsewhere from Cuba northward from 70W westward.

A cold front is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through
32N28W to 30N30W, to 27N35W, and to 24N40W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 20N45W to 22N40W to 25N35W, and within 90 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 26N35W to 28N31W, and
beyond 32N26W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will extend from
31N70W to the central Bahamas later today. The front will move
across the SE waters on Friday. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on both sides of the front. A second cold front is
forecast to move off northern Florida on Saturday morning, and
extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Saturday night. Strong
winds are possible on Sunday night and on Monday, in the
northern waters, as developing low pressure along the frontal
boundary moves across south Florida into the Bahamas.

$$
mt/dbm
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