[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 07 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
04N23W, to 03N30W, 01N40W, to 01N49W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of
the ITCZ between 18W and 20W, from 50 nm to 100 nm to the north
of the ITCZ between 28W and 30W, from 75 nm to 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 38W and 40W, and from 135 nm to 250 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 41W and the coasts of Brazil
and French Guiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the entire area.
A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 30N77W, to
the SE coast of Florida near 27N80W, passing about 15 nm to the
NNW of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N82W on the SW coast of Florida,
into the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W, curving
southwestward to 24N94W, and to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong was covering the
area from 20N to 23N between 90W and 96W, from 06/2300 UTC until
07/0130 UTC more or less. The cloud top temperatures in that
area have been warming during the last few hours. The
precipitation has been weakening with time. It is possible that
some rainshowers may be in the same area still. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong has been in the Yucatan Peninsula,
and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, also,
developing and weakening, during the last six hours or so.

The current cold will move south of the area on Thursday. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico
during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected in the NW Gulf on Thursday night and Friday. A second
cold front is forecast to enter the northern waters on Friday
night. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop
along the front in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Smoke,
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may cause haze and
reduced visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the northern sections of
Colombia, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the
northern half of Costa Rica. Upper level SW wind flow moves from
the eastern Pacific Ocean, across Central America from Nicaragua
northward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and toward
Hispaniola. Areas of scattered to broken are moving across the
open waters of the Caribbean Sea, with the upper level wind flow.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and
moderate to fresh winds in most of the remainder of the basin,
through Sunday. Smoke, from agricultural fires in northern
Central America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N75W to
30N77W, to the SE coast of Florida near 27N80W. The front
continues across Florida, just to the NNW of Lake Okeechobee,
and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the SE of the
cold front, from 26N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between Andros Island and Cuba. Isolated moderate also
is elsewhere from Cuba northward from 70W westward.

A cold front is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through
32N28W to 30N30W, to 27N35W, and to 24N40W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 20N45W to 22N40W to 25N35W, and within 90 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 26N35W to 28N31W, and
beyond 32N26W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will extend from
31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thursday. The front will move
across the SE waters on Friday. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on both sides of the front. A second cold front is
forecast to move off northern Florida on Saturday morning. The
second cold front will extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by
Saturday night. Strong winds are possible on Sunday night and on
Monday, in the northern waters, as developing low pressure along
the frontal boundary moves across south Florida into the Bahamas.

$$
mt
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