[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
Bissau near 10N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to
03N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection isolated strong convection is south of 06N between 30W
and 51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from
02N to 07N east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1800 UTC, a cold front extends from just north of Tampa,
Florida westward to near 29N83W to south of the Mexico-U.S.
border near 27N93W to the Mexican coast near Tampico, Mexico.
South of the front lies a surface trough from the central Bay
of Campeche northward to 23N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring south of 24N between 93W and 96W on
either side of the trough. Scattered showers and a few weak
thunderstorms were located along the front from 86W to near the
Florida coast. N to NE winds of 15 to 20 kt generally prevail
north of the front, where seas are building at 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere throughout the Gulf, winds are fresh breeze or weaker.
Across the SW Gulf moderate smoke likely continues due to
agricultural fires from Mexico.

The cold front will reach from SW Florida to Tampico, Mexico
tonight, then move south of the basin on Thu while weakening.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the
front, but mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf waters. Fresh
to strong southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf on Fri
as a low pressure system develops over the southern U.S. Smoke
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico could cause haze and
reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate north-south pressure gradient is established across
the Caribbean today. This is producing generally fresh to
moderate E trades across the Caribbean except for strong NE trades
just north of Colombia, as observed by late morning scatterometer.
Peak seas are up to 8 ft in the SW Caribbean. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are occurring across the Sw Caribbean
south of 11N across the waters of Costa Rica and Panama.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate
to fresh winds over most of the remainder of the basin through
Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America
may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high is displaced southward of normal, with a
broad east-west ridge centered on a 1022 mb highs near 26N53W. There
is a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores high
and the ITCZ, promoting generally fresh to moderate NE to E
trades, as observed by scatterometer passes this morning. Peak
seas have built to 7-8 ft this afternoon. North of the high,
there is a cold front extending from 32N30W to 28W37W with
scattered showers occurring within 60 nm of the front. A second
cold front extends from 32N50W to 30N55W. No significant shower
activity is associated with this second cold front.

A third cold front has entered the NW waters from 31N78W to near
St Augustine, Florida. No significant convection is noted on
either side of the front. The front will extend from 31N70W to the
central Bahamas on Thu, then move across the SE waters on Fri.
Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front.
Southerly flow will increase over the NW portion of the area on
Fri night ahead of another cold front forecast to move off
northern Florida Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to the NW
Bahamas by Sat night.


$$
Stripling
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