[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to
03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 35W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located
north of 04N east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend region of
Florida near 29N83W to south of the Mexico-U.S. border near
24N98W.  Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 24N west of 93W ahead of the frontal
boundary. N to NE winds north of the front are moderate to
strong while seas remain less than 8 ft, as observed by ships
and buoys this morning. Elsewhere throughout the Gulf, winds are
fresh breeze or weaker. While it is difficult to discern due to
high overcast, the SW Gulf likely continues to have moderate to
dense smoke due to agricultural fires from Mexico.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to NE Mexico later
today, from SW Florida to Tampico, Mexico tonight, then move
south of the basin on Thu while weakening. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, but
mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf on Fri as a low
pressure system develops over the southern U.S. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico could cause haze and
reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate north-south pressure gradient is established across
the Caribbean this morning.  This is producing generally fresh
to moderate E trades across the Caribbean except for strong NE
trades just north of Colombia, as observed by scatterometer.
Peak seas are up to 8 ft in the SW Caribbean.  Widely scattered
showers are occurring just south of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate
to fresh winds over most of the remainder of the basin through
Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America
may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high is displaced southward today with a
broad east-west ridge and two 1021 mb highs at 23N53W and 23N39W
split by a trough.  There is a moderate pressure gradient
between the Bermuda-Azores high and the ITCZ, promoting
generally fresh to moderate NE to E trades, as observed by
scatterometer passes this morning.  Peak seas remain below 8 ft.
North of the high, there is a cold front extending from 32N32W
to 28W40W with scattered showers occurring within 60 nm of the
front.  A second cold front extends from 32N51W to 30N57W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to 32N63W.  No significant
shower activity is associated with this second cold front.

A third cold front will enter the NW waters later today, extend
from 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thu, then move across the
SE waters on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either
side of the front. Southerly flow will increase over the NW
portion of the area on Fri night ahead of another cold front
forecast to move off northern Florida Sat morning and extend
from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Sat night.

$$
CWL
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