[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
and continues to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to near
the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 75 nm on either sides of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level water vapor imagery and low level precipitable water
imagery continue to show dry air across most of the basin, which
continues to support stable conditions. Surface ridging prevails
across the area, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near
29N83W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across most
of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds are noted across the
Bay of Campeche with the thermal diurnal trough.

The ridge will continue across the Gulf waters. A cold front will
reach the NW Gulf tonight, extend from SW Florida to near
Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, then exit the basin on Thu. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front through early Thu.
Southerly return flow will increase across the NW Gulf by Thu
night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the region
Fri night. A low pressure system could develop along the frontal
boundary over the SW Gulf during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in association with
the developing low and front. Smoke from forest fires in
southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the
SW Gulf for the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather prevails across the region being supported
by dry air subsidence from aloft. High pressure over the central
Atlantic supports pulsing fresh to strong trade winds over
the S central Caribbean north of Colombia, while and moderate to
fresh winds prevail over the eastern half of the basin. Light to
gentle easterly winds are noted across the western Caribbean
west of 79W.

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to maintain the
same winds pattern through the end of the week. High pressure
will develop over the west Atlantic waters by Fri evening,
supporting fresh to strong trades across most of the waters S of
18N and E of 80W through the weekend. Smoke from forest fires in
northern Central America will reduce visibilities over the Gulf
of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered east of the Bahamas near 28N70W.
Farther east, in the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N40W to 27N49W, then a surface trough extends from that point
to 26N56W. Scattered showers are noted along the front and
trough. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1020 mb center of high pressure located near
24N39W.

A cold front will clip the NE waters today. The next cold front
will enter the NW waters on Wed, extend from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas on Thu, and move across the SE waters on Fri.
Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front.
Another cold front will come off the coast of Georgia Sat
morning and extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Sat night.

$$
ERA
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