[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
and continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N35W
to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N47W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 0N to 06N W of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level water vapor imagery and low level precipitable water
imagery continue to show dry air across most of the basin, which
is supporting stable conditions. Surface ridging prevails in the
gulf, being anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N83W. This is
providing light to gentle variable winds in the eastern half of
the basin and moderate to locally fresh return flow W of 90W.

Surface high pres will prevail across the Gulf through Tue. A
cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by Tue night,
extend from Tampa Bay to near Brownsville, Texas by Wed night,
then exit the basin early Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected
over the NE gulf Wed night as the front moves through this region.
Another cold front will sink S over the northern Gulf Fri night,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico Sat afternoon and
stall from near Tampa Bay to a low pressure near 24N95W to the Bay
of Campeche Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow this
front with possible near gale force winds affecting the Mexican
adjacent waters Sat night. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in
southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the
SW Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather prevails across the region being supported
by dry air subsidence from aloft. High pressure over the central
Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the
basin through Fri afternoon, except for the NW Caribbean, where
gentle to moderate winds are expected. High pressure will develop
over the SW N Atlc waters by Fri evening, resulting in the
expansion of strong winds to the N central Caribbean through Sat
night. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in northern Central
America will reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and
near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered NE of the Bahamas near 26N71W. Farther
east, in the central Atlc, a cold front extends from 31N41W to
27N49W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder eastern Atlc
waters with a 1021 mb center of high pressure located near 24N39W.
Except for scattered to isolated showers ahead of the cold front,
fair weather dominates elsewhere.

A cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Wed
night, extend from 30N68W to the central Bahamas Thu night, and
move E of the area Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong winds preceding
and following the front will affect the offshore waters N of the
Bahamas Wed night through Thu morning. A second cold front will
come off the coast of Georgia Sat morning and extend from 31N68W
to near Cape Canaveral, Florida by Sat night.

$$
Ramos
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