[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050435
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0430 UTC Tue May 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to near
the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N47W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 22W and 48W
and scattered moderate convection along the coast of Brazil from
02S-06N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions remain across the Gulf under the
influence of a middle to upper level ridge. High pressure over
the Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two
troughs present, one in the Bay of Campeche not producing
significant convection and a second trough along the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen mainly
inland associated with both troughs. Weak pressure gradient across
the basin is providing variable to gentle winds in the eastern half
of the basin, and supporting moderate return flow west of 90W. Seas
across the basin ranges between 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, surface high pres will prevail across the Gulf
through Tue. A cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by Tue
night, extend from Tampa Bay to near 28N88W Wed evening, then exit
the basin early Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the NE
gulf Wed night as the front moves through this region. Another cold
front will sink S over the northern Gulf Fri evening, extend from
the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico Sat morning and stall from near
Tampa Bay to NE Mexico Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
for the NW basin Thu night through early Fri. Otherwise, smoke from
forest fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off northeast Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trade winds elsewhere over the
south central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in open waters across
this area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted. A few passing showers are noted from the Leeward
Islands to Puerto Rico, elsewhere, no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted. Visibility over the Gulf of Honduras
has improved.

High pressure over the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds over the remainder of the basin through Sat night, except
for the NW Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected.
Smoke from forest fires in northern Central America will reduce
visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the Atlantic basin is under the influence of a broad high
pressure centered near 32N35W. A cold front extends from a 1006 mb
low pressure north of the area from 31N44W to 27N49W. There are some
scattered showers and thunderstorms about 100 nm east of the front.
Moderate SW winds are noted north of 30N, ahead of a front. In the
western Atlantic, an area of southwest winds is present north of 30N
ahead of a cold front off the Carolinas. Elsewhere west of 60W,
light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over open waters
west of 60W. Deep layer E to SE flow across the tropical Atlantic
south of the ridge is transporting Saharan dust to as far west as
45W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are observed
south of the ridge to the ITCZ.

A cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters
Wed night, extend from 30N68W to the central Bahamas Thu night,
and move E of the area Fri night. Fresh to strong winds preceding
and following the front will affect the offshore waters N of the
Bahamas Wed night through Thu morning. A second cold front will come
off the coast of Georgia Sat morning and extend from 30N76W to near
Cape Canaveral, Florida by Sat night.

&&
MTorres
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