[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052241
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2241 UTC Tue May 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W
and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W 03N30W to
05N45W to to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 35W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from west central Florida toward
southwest Louisiana and the north Texas coast, just ahead of a
cold front over coastal Texas approaching the northwest Gulf. A
trough is analyzed over the southwest Gulf along 92W/93W. Light
to gentle S to SW winds are noted north of the ridge with 1 to 3
ft seas, mainly across the northeast Gulf. Moderate SE winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, south of the ridge axis. The
SE winds are bringing dense smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico to much of the southwest and south central Gulf.
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident across
the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach the northwest Gulf
tonight, extend from southwest Florida to near Tampico, Mexico
by Wed night into Thu, then exit the basin on Thu while
weakening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through
early Thu. Southerly return flow will increase across the
northwest Gulf by Thu night ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the region Fri night. A low pressure system
could develop along the frontal boundary over the southwest Gulf
during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected in association with the developing low and cold
front. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in southern Mexico
could cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for
the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of trade wind convergence, divergence aloft and
rich deep layer moisture are working in concert to support
scattered thunderstorms off the coast of the Bocas del Toro of
western Panama. Elsewhere, generally fair weather prevails across
the region being supported by dry air subsidence from aloft.
High pressure over the central Atlantic supports pulsing fresh to
strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean north of
Colombia, while and moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are
noted across the western Caribbean west of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the
basin through Fri afternoon, except for the northwest Caribbean,
where gentle to moderate winds are expected. High pressure will
develop over the western Atlantic by Fri evening, supporting
fresh to strong trades across most of the waters south of 18N and
east of 80W through Sun. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in
northern Central America may reduce visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends westward along 27N into central Florida
from a 1018 mb surface high centered near 27N67W. A recent ship
observation along with earlier scatterometer data indicated
moderate to fresh SW flow between the high pressure and a 1010 mb
low pressure area moving through the coastal Carolinas. A weak
surface trough is analyzed from the Turks and Caicos to near
25N68W. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere across the
Atlantic south of 32N and west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas and no
significant showers or thunderstorm activity. For the forecast,
the cold front will enter off northeast Florida Wed, extend from
near 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thu, and move across the
east of 60W Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either
side of the front. Southerly flow will increase off northeast
Florida Fri night ahead of another cold front forecast to come
off the coast of Georgia Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to
the northern Bahamas by Sat night.

Farther east, a relatively weak pressure pattern continues
between a 1014 mb low near 29N44W and a 1018 mb high near 22N41W.
The high pressure is strong enough to support moderate to fresh
trades winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 20W, with seas 6
to 8 ft.

$$
Christensen
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