[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to
03N28W, 02N40W, to 03N43W and 02N50W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 24W and 39W, and along and within 30 nm to the south of
the ITCZ between 30W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N96W. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico that is south and southeast of the 24N96W cyclonic center.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W.

High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will slowly shift
eastward through Mon. Southerly winds will increase early next
week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause
haze and reduced visibilities in the southwest Gulf during the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia.

A western Atlantic Ocean ridge will maintain fresh trade winds
in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke, from agricultural fires in
Central America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes from 32N68W, across
the central Bahamas and Cuba near 22N78W, to the central Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 240 nm to the east of the cold front from 30N
northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is elsewhere
within 480 nm to the east of the cold front, from 25N northward.

An east-central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N28W
to 23N46W. The front becomes stationary at 23N46W, and it
continues to 24N55W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is within 120 nm to the east of the front from 27N to
32N, and northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, within
60 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary.

The cold front from 31N68W to central Cuba will reach from
Bermuda to the southern Bahamas later today, then stall and
weaken from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sun. High pressure will
prevail across the northern waters through early next week.

$$
mt/dbm
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