[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
03N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between
06W-17W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 10N-
02S between 20W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the Florida panhandle near
31N85W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the NE Gulf.
10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Radar
imagery shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. An upper level
high is also centered near 24N96W.

High pressure ridging W from the western Atlantic will remain
over the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Thermal
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will bring fresh to
locally strong winds to the waters W of the peninsula each evening
through Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf
for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS of 02/1500 UTC a dissipating stationary front extends from
central Cuba near 22N78W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W.
No precipitation is noted along the front. 15-25 kt trade winds
are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with highest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over Puerto Rico. Similar showers are over the Windward
Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coasts of
Panama and Costa Rica.

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Tue. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities
over the Gulf of Honduras and E of the Yucatan peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N64W to 26N70W to
24N74W. A stationary front continues to 22N78W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 28N between 54W-64W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 240 nm E of the front N of 24N. A 1027 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. A cold front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N27W to 25N32W to 22N40W to 23N50W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front.

The western Atlantic front will move slowly SE and become
stationary from 25N60W to 23N73W Sun. The front will then
dissipate by Mon. High pressure will then prevail across the
western Atlantic through Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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