[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to
03N28W, 02N40W, to 03N43W and 02N50W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 24W and 35W, and along and within 30 nm to the
south of the ITCZ between 28W and 30W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N96W. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico that is south and southeast of the 24N96W cyclonic center.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W.

High pressure in the NW Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward,
slowly, through Monday. Southerly winds will increase early next
week. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may
cause haze and reduced visibilities in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from tje NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia. The 24-hour precipitation
total, in inches, ending at 02/0000 UTC, is 0.01, for Guadeloupe.

A western Atlantic Ocean ridge will maintain fresh trade winds
in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke, from agricultural fires in
Central America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N70W, to
Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, to Cuba near 22N79W, to the
central Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the cold front
from 31N northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is
elsewhere within 480 nm to the east of the cold front, from 25N
northward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean/central Atlantic Ocean cold front
passes through 32N30W to 25N40W. The front becomes stationary at
25N40W, and it continues to 24N47W, and to 24N56W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within
120 nm to the east of the front from 27N to 30N, and within 60
nm on either side of the cold front from 30N northward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, within 60 nm on either side
of the rest of the frontal boundary.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will move
eastward. The front will reach from Bermuda to the southern
Bahamas on Saturday. The front will stall and weaken from 27N65W
to eastern Cuba on Sunday. High pressure will prevail across the
northern waters through early next week.

$$
mt
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