[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EDT Fri May 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 02N38W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico this evening behind a
cold front that now extends from the western Atlantic into the NW
Caribbean. The latest buoy and ship observations show light to
gentle anticyclonic flow around a 1021 mb high pressure center
over the north-central Gulf. Earlier altimeter data revealed some
4 ft seas near the Straits of Florida, but elsewhere seas are
generally 3 ft or less across the basin. No significant convection
is occurring at this time.

High pressure in the NW Gulf will slowly shift eastward through
Mon. Southerly winds will increase early next week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities in the southwest Gulf during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No significant convection is observed in the Caribbean this
evening as upper-level ridging persists across the basin. Some
isolated shower activity is noted on radar imagery south of
Puerto Rico. At the surface, the tail end of a cold front extends
across western Cuba and the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate NE flow prevails behind the front in the Yucatan Passage.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades continue in the south-central
Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia.
Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the central and eastern waters,
and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean. A recent analysis shows light
to moderate smoke over the Gulf of Honduras, with locally dense
smoke near the northern coast of Honduras.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds
in the central Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds
are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the Gulf of
Honduras and east of the Yucatan peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic offshore waters from
32N71W over the central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba near
23N80W. GOES-16 lightning data shows a line of thunderstorms N of
30N ahead of the front. Fresh to strong S winds prevail ahead of
the front, along with 7-9 ft seas. A central Atlantic cold front
is analyzed from 32N31W to 26N40W to 24N48W, where it becomes
stationary and continues to 24N54W. Recent altimeter passes show
8-14 ft seas in large NW to N swell behind the front, highest N of
30N. In fact, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 26N E
of 55W this evening. A surface ridge dominates the eastern
Atlantic, with moderate trade winds S of 20N E of 55W.

An offshore cold front will move eastward and reach from Bermuda
to the southern Bahamas Sat, then stall and weaken from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba Sun. High pressure will prevail across the northern
waters through early next week.

$$
B Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net