[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EDT Fri May 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 08N18W.  The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to
03N27W to 02N38W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated
thunderstorms are seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N-07N
between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ
from 01N-05N between 19W-36W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is near  the ITCZ near the Brazilian coast from
02S-03N between 37W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Upper level ridging is building across the Gulf with a 1021 mb
high pressure in the north-central Gulf near 29N89W. No
significant convection is occurring at this time. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin. Seas range
1 to 4 ft.

High pressure in the NW Gulf will slowly shift eastward through
Mon. Southerly winds will increase early next week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities in the southwest Gulf during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging persists across the Caribbean with no
significant convection observed as a result through most of the
basin. Isolated showers are adjacent to Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers are in the SW basin off the coast of Costa Rica, S of
11N between 80W-83W. A cold front is moving south in the Yucatan
Passage. Meanwhile, a trough is in the Gulf of Honduras from
21N85W to 16N87W. Isolated thunderstorms are west of the trough
from 15N-17N between 87W-88W. Light to gentle trades are in the
western the Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades in the
eastern basin. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. Light to medium smoke is
reported in the Gulf of Honduras which is reducing visibilities.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and east of the Yucatan peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front continues to press southward in the western
Atlantic as a mid-level trough digs across the region. The cold
front enters the waters near 31N73W to the central Bahamas near
25N77W to the northern Cuban coast near 23N80W. A line of
thunderstorms is along the cold front from 29N-32N between 70W-
74W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are occuring
from 24N-31N between 67W-75W. Seas are 3 to 7 ft. Another cold
front in the central Atlantic is analyzed from 31N36W to 26N42W
to 24N58W. Showers are within 100 nm east of the front. Moderate
to fresh winds are on either side of the front. Surface ridging
covers the rest of the basin.

A cold front from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida will move
eastward and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Sat,
then stall and weaken from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sun. High
pressure will prevail across the northern waters through early
next week.

$$
AReinhart
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