[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W, to
01N33W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 29W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 07N southward between 46W and 57w.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
93W eastward. An upper level trough extends from the eastern
U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front has exited the basin, and 1018
mb high pressure behind the front is centered near 28N93W.
Precipitation: isolated showers N of the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure in the NW Gulf will slowly shift eastward through
Mon. Southerly winds will increase early next week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities in the southern Gulf during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N
Colombia. The 24-hour precipitation total, in inches, ending at
01/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe, is : 0.30.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the
Gulf of Honduras and east of the Yucatan peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from the eastern U.S.A. to
Florida. A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic
Ocean, into the Straits of Florida to the northern coast of Cuba
near 23N83W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 360 nm to 420 nm to the east of the cold front, from
the Bahamas northward.

A trough, what is left of a dissipating stationary front, is in
the central Atlantic Ocean. The trough passes from 31N39W to
24N59W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is
from 30N northward to the east of the front. Isolated moderate
is within 120 nm to the east of the front from 26N to 30N.
Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in broken low level clouds,
from 20N northward between 46W and 70W.

The cold front from 32N76W to southern Florida the Straits of
Florida, will move eastward and reach from Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas Sat, then stall and weaken from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba Sun. High pressure will prevail across the northern
waters through early next week.

$$
mt/DBM
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