[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri May 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N16W, and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N21W, to 01N33W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on either
side of the ITCZ between 24W and 45W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 03N northward between 07W and 09W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward
between 46W and 57w.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
93W eastward. The upper level trough from 24 hours ago now
extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front passes
through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida just to the NW
of Lake Okeechobee, across the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the north
central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate is in the eastern coastal sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

The current cold front, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico, will
exit from the basin on Friday morning. High pressure will
prevail across the region through early next week. Smoke, from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may cause haze and
reduced visibilities in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N
Colombia. The 24-hour precipitation total, in inches, ending at
01/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe, is : 0.30.

A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke, from agricultural
fires in Central America, may cause haze and reduced
visibilities in the western Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level trough, that was in the Gulf of Mexico 24 hours
ago, now extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold
front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida
just to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, across the SE Gulf of Mexico,
to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to 420 nm
to the east and southeast of the cold front, from Cuba northward.

A dissipating stationary front is in the central Atlantic Ocean.
The front passes through 32N39W to 28N44W to 24N59W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 30N
northward to the east of the front. Isolated moderate is within
120 nm to the east of the front from 26N to 30N. Rainshowers are
possible, elsewhere, in broken low level clouds, from 20N
northward between 46W and 70W.

The current cold front from 31N77W to southern Florida will move
eastward, and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas on
Saturday. The cold front will stall, and weaken from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba on Sunday. Weak high pressure will prevail across
the northern waters early next week.

$$
mt
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