[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian
low is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean, per recent scatterometer data. Winds
near the coast of Colombia are expected to pulse to gale force
between 00-12 UTC Mon as the ridge gradually moves southward. Seas
will build to 8-12 ft Mon morning within the gale force winds.
Looking ahead, winds will continue pulsing to near gale force off
the coast of Colombia each night this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to
02N36W to 03N40W to near 00N46W. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 14W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N to 05N between
18W and 22W, and from 01N to 06N between 41W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from weak low pressure off the coast of
Brownsville, Texas across the NW Gulf to 28N90W. There, the front
becomes stationary and reaches to near Panama City, Florida.
Radar imagery shows isolated showers north of the front over the
coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high
pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 28.5N85W. Earlier
scatterometer data showed fresh winds south of this high over the
Straits of Florida. Fresh winds were also noted over the SW Gulf
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The frontal system over the northern Gulf will lift northward and
move inland along the Gulf Coast later today into tonight.
Atlantic high pressure extending westward across central Florida
into the eastern Gulf will change little through Thu night. Fresh
to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore
of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the gale warning tonight off the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates dry air prevails across
most of the basin as a deep-layer ridge dominates the western
Atlantic into the NW Caribbean. Some isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is noted south of Hispaniola and near the
Leeward Islands, likely supported by a weak 500-mb low over the
eastern Caribbean. Overnight scatterometer data revealed strong
winds through the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic. Strong winds were also noted near the coast of Colombia,
where a 03 UTC altimeter pass indicated seas were running 7-9 ft.
Elsewhere, fresh NE winds were sampled in the lee of Cuba.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several
days. Winds will pulse to gale force speeds offshore of the coast
of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue through
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Mon night,
then diminish slightly through midweek. NE swell across the waters
east of the Leeward Islands will subside by Tue. Fresh to locally
strong winds may pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper-level low noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery
over the central Atlantic is associated with a weak surface low
near 29N50W this morning. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh
winds in its NW quadrant, with 8-10 ft seas in NE swell based on
available altimeter data. In fact, N to NE swell is generating a
large area of 8 ft seas from the low center southwestward to
Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. A second, mid-level low
pressure center is supporting scattered moderate convection from
25N to 29N between 43W and 46W. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge
dominates the subtropical western Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front approaching the southeastern U.S. coast will move
southward today, then stall just north of the forecast waters
tonight before lifting northward as a warm front early Mon. A high
pressure ridge will prevail across the western Atlantic for the
next several days. Fresh SW flow will develop over the northern
Florida offshore waters Wed and Wed night, ahead of another cold
front that may move across the NW portion Thu and Thu night.

$$
B Reinhart
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