[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
The current forecast, starting at 22/0000 UTC, consists of NE
gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, from 11N to
12N between 74W and 75W, at 24 hours, starting on Sunday night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 04N21W, 04N23W
02N30W, to 02N40W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to the coastal
plains of Brazil near 02S43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 17W and 22W, and within 135 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 38W and 40W, and between 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from South America
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W,
to 29N88W. The front is stationary from 29N88W to the coast of
Texas near 27N97W, into NE Mexico near 25N99W, and then
northwestward, beyond the Texas Big Bend toward El Paso, Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to the northwest of the line
that runs from the coast of Mexico near 22N98W, to 25N90W, to the
Florida Big Bend near 30N85W.

The current cold front will begin to retreat NW as a warm front
from tonight through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds
will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula,
diminishing in the mornings. Atlantic high pressure, extending
westward across the rest of the area, will change little through
Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Anegada Passage, to
16N70W, through NE Nicaragua, to El Salvador. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Isolated moderate from 11N to 18N.
Rainshowers are possible, in general, elsewhere, in broken low
level clouds, across the entire area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.15 in
Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

Fairly strong high pressure N of the area will support fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the next
several days. Expect gale-force winds on Sunday night, offshore
of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will continue
through the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola, through Monday
night, then fresh thereafter. It is possible that fresh to strong
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the nighttime
hours, from Tuesday night through Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N45W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 40W and 55W, and from the islands of the eastern
part of the Caribbean Sea northeastward to 20N between 46W and
64W. An upper level trough extends from the 27N45W circulation
center to the Anegada Passage of the NE Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough extends from 32N49W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that
is near 29N49W, to 25N46W, and curving to 23N46W and 20N46W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 21N to
30N between 41W and 47W.

A surface trough is along 76W/77W from 20N in Cuba to 26N.
Precipitation: broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
are within 60 nm to the east of the trough, and within 120 nm to
the west of the trough.

A ridge that extends from Bermuda to Florida will maintain fresh
to strong winds and high seas S of 29N tonight. Fresh NE swells
across the same area, and just to the N, will gradually subside
tonight. A weak cold front will move southward, from the U.S. Mid-
Atlantic coast to the southeastern U.S.A. coastal waters on
Sunday. The front will stall E of northern Florida by Sunday
night. The front will move to the north as a warm front by early
Monday. It is possible that a second cold front may approach the
NW part of the area on Wednesday night, slowly shifting E-SE while
weakening through Thursday night.

$$
MT
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