[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
in the south-central Caribbean is supporting a large area of
fresh to strong winds across the central basin per recent scatterometer
data. Winds near the coast of Colombia are expected to pulse to
gale force during the evening and night hours today and Mon. Seas
will build to 12 ft at night during the peak winds. Looking
ahead, winds will continue pulsing to near gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night the remainder week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N20W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to 03N43W to
00N50W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N
between 07W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 01S to 07N between 20W and 28W, and from 03S to 09N between
35W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Apalachee Bay to across southeastern
Louisiana and to along the Texas coast to inland over far northeastern
Mexico. Middle level and surface ridging across most of the basin
provides dry air subsidence and mostly fair weather conditions.
However, shallow moisture being advected from SE flow supports
dense fog along and within 90 nm of the stationary front in the NW
gulf. A surface trough prevails over the SW gulf waters from
23N93W to the western Bay of Campeche. Low level precipitable
water imagery show plenty of shallow moisture along and in the
vicinity of the trough, which currently supports isolated showers. Fresh
to locally strong northeast to east winds will develop each evening
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula associated with this trough,
then diminish during the overnight and early morning hours.

The front will begin to lift northward as warm front later today,
and move inland along the Gulf Coast by early this evening.
Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure extending westward across
central Florida into the eastern Gulf will change little through
Thu night. Afterwards, return flow will establish across the
basin through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 layered water vapor imagery indicates dry air conditions
across most of the basin. However, low-level precipitable water
imagery show shallow moisture over Central America and adjacent
waters. This along an upper level trough may support isolated
showers in this region today. Similarly, a middle level low over
the eastern Caribbean and shallow moisture crossing the region
support isolated showers in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and
adjacent waters. Except, for the central Caribbean and the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds prevail, latest
scatterometer data indicate moderate trades elsewhere.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several
days. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Mon night off
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will continue through
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Mon night,
then diminish slightly through mid- week. Short-period northeast
swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will subside
by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds may pulse at night in the
Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level low over the north-central Atlc supports a
pair of 1019 mb lows, one centered near 28N51W and another near
26N46W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are within 270 nm NE
semicircle of the easternmost low. A cold front is sinking over
the NE subtropical Atlc waters, extending along 30N15W to 29N20W
to 30N25W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind of the
front near the Canary Islands. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
dominates the subtropical western and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front along the southeastern U.S. coast will move
southward today, then stall just north of the forecast waters
tonight before lifting northward as a warm front early Mon. High
pressure ridging will continue across the northern waters for the
next several days. Fresh to strong southwest flow will develop
over the northern SW N Atlc waters Wed and Wed night, ahead of
another cold front that may move across the northern waters Thu
and Thu night.

$$
Ramos
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