[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2323 UTC Sat Jun 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa extends from
03N-20N with axis near 17W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 11N E of 20W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 40W, moving
westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers and tstms are from 04N-
12N between 35W-45W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis near 53W, moving
westward at 15 knots. No convection is associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean S of 20N, with
axis near 80W, moving westward at 15 knots. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is S of 16N W of 77.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 08N36W. The ITCZ
begins near 08N55W and continues to 08N59W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 20W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable conditions prevail across the Gulf supported by surface
and middle level ridging. A weak pressure gradient across the
region sustain moderate return flow in the western half of the
basin and lighter winds elsewhere. Isolated showers are observed
over the northern Gulf offshore waters. This shower activity is
being supported by an upper level trough over the north-central
basin and moisture inflow from both the Caribbean and a broad
area of low pressure over the open waters SW of Manzanillo,
Mexico in the E Pacific.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected
across most of the basin through Wed, except over the northeast
Gulf, where light winds will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area continue to support fresh winds in
the eastern and central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong in
the south central basin. Otherwise, a vigorous tropical wave is
producing heavy showers and tstms in the SW basin. See tropical
waves section above.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to
near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. A tropical
wave is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure continue to dominate the central, eastern and SW N
Atlc waters, supporting fair weather.

In the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the SW N Atlc waters through early next week as high pressure
extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A trough
passing through the area may bring some moderate to fresh
westerly winds north of 28N for the start of next week.

$$
Ramos
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