[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is observed moving off the coast of Africa along
15W from 20N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from the coast of Guinea-Bisau south between
14W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers is seen near
the vicinity of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is
noted with this wave. Water vapor indicate the presence of drier
air in the area.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
in clusters in the coastal waters and inland areas of Panama,
south of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes though coast of Guinea near 12N16W, to
07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 06N49W, then west of
the tropical wave from 08N55W to the coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is seen about 260 nm to the south and 180 to
the north of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen between the ABC Islands and Trinidad and
Tobago, between 59W-66W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from a southern Mexico anticyclonic
circulation center, to Florida. At the surface ridge extends
from a 1022 mb high in the Southeast Plains extending to the
coastal border of Texas and Mexico. ASCAT data indicates east to
southeast moderate to fresh winds across the central and western
Gulf and lighter winds to the east. Scattered showers are noted
along the northwest Gulf.

A surface ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters into the middle
of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across
most of the basin through Tue night, except over the northeast
Gulf, where light winds will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the Caribbean
Sea from SE Cuba the coastal waters of Nicaragua between 80W and
83W. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity south of 17N is
associated to the tropical wave and Pacific monsoon trough.
Scatterometer data shows the moderate to fresh northeast winds
continue across the Lesser Antilles and fresh trades over the
central Caribbean. Strong easterly winds are noted north of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean into the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to near
gale force along the coast of Colombia at nights. A tropical wave
will approach the Lesser Antilles early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, across SE
Cuba to the southern Bahamas. At the surface, a 1028 mb high
pressure prevails across the Atlantic Ocean centered near
35N35W. Current ASCAT shows moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds from 09N-30N. In the forecast, light to gentle winds will
prevail across the waters into early next week as high pressure
extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A trough
passing through the area may bring some moderate to fresh westerly
winds north of 27N this weekend.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net