[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa extends from
03N-20N with axis near 17W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis, S of 12N.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 41W, moving
westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-
11N between 37W-45W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N-17N with axis near 55W, moving
westward at 15 knots. No convection is associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean S of 20N, with
axis near 81W, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is S of 16N W of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 08N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N24W to 08N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical
wave near 07N43W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from
06N-09N between 46W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable conditions prevail across the Gulf supported by surface
and middle level ridging. A weak pressure gradient across the
region sustain moderate return flow in the western half of the
basin and lighter winds elsewhere. Isolated showers are observed
over the northern Gulf offshore waters. This shower activity is
being supported by an upper level trough over the north-central
basin and moisture inflow from N Mexico.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected
across most of the basin through Wed, except over the northeast
Gulf, where light winds will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave along 81W and the eastern extent of the E
Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate to strong
convection over the SW Caribbean and central America S of Belize.
Similar convection is inland over N Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to
near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. A tropical
wave is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of
next week enhancing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection off the coast
of Georgia. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
28N78W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
35N33W, producing fair weather.

Over the W Atlantic, light to gentle winds will prevail across
most of the waters through early next week as high pressure
extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A surface
trough passing through the area may bring some moderate to
fresh westerly winds north of 28N early next week.

$$
Formosa
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