[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 18W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-16N between 15W-21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 04N-18N with
axis near 38W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-10N between 34W-42W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 48W, moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending from 08N-17N with
axis near 61W, moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 81W,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 22N between 77W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N22W to 08N34W, then resumes from 07N40W to
06N45W, then resumes from 05N48W to 05N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between
18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and tstms are in the SE basin and in the E Bay
of Campeche being supported by a middle to upper level trough.
Deep layer dry air in the remaining basin support fair weather.

A surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW
Gulf through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the
remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds through the entire period.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of middle to upper-level diffluence spans from the
central Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a
result of these upper-level conditions, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection covers portions of the NW and SW
Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western
Caribbean waters are expected to continue through Tue. A tropical
wave with axis near 81W will exit the basin Tue afternoon. A
second tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles, will move
across the E Caribbean through Tue and reach the far western
Caribbean Fri night. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern
Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night, cross the Lesser Antilles
early on Wed, move across the E Caribbean through Thu night and
the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to
strong trade winds will remain over the south- central Caribbean
through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of middle to upper-level diffluence is over the Bahamas
supporting the continuation of scattered showers and tstms in that
region. The remainder W and central Atlc is under the influence of
a surface ridge that is supporting tranquil conditions.

For the forecast west of 70W, a stationary front will remain
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast through Tue night. Low
pressure along the front will slowly track well north of the area
through mid-week. A trough will trail from the low southward to
near the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Before that happens, a
trough, both at the surface and upper- levels, will be in the
vicinity of South Florida and the Bahamas. These features will
combine with ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather
conditions to these waters through Wed. Central Atlantic high
pressure will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and
Florida Thu through Fri night.


$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net