[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EDT MON Jun 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just moving off the west coast of
Africa near 16W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is from 03N-10N near the coast of
Africa.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W S of 18N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of 12N
within
180 nm on either side of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W S of 18N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of 12N
within 100 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W S of 16N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. Enhanced shower activity
is possible over the southern Windward Islands tonight into
Monday.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W S of 18N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
has increased in the last 6 hours from Jamaica west to the coast
of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N22W to 08N34W, then resumes from 07N40W to
06N45W, then resumes from 05N48W to 05N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between
18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 20N91W to 25N95W. Scattered showers
are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis. Additional scattered
showers and tstorms are seen from 23N-27N between 84W-90W, as
well as over the far SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
over most of the basin. Tropical wave along 90W in SE Mexico
will continue to enhance scattered Moderate convection along the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeast Gulf tonight. Elsewhere, weak high
pressure will dominate the remainder basin supporting moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central
Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result
of these upper-level conditions, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection covers the western Caribbean from 09N-22N
between 70W-82W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
eastern Caribbean as well as the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western
Caribbean.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of
the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through
at least the early part of the week. A tropical wave with axis
from Jamaica southward will exit the basin Tue afternoon. Another
tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands this evening, and
move across the eastern Caribbean through early Tue. It will
continue westward reaching the far western Caribbean Fri night.
Yet another tropical wave well east of the forecast waters will
enter the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon
night and move across those waters through Tue night. It will
cross the Lesser Antilles early on Wed, move across the eastern
Caribbean through Thu night and the central Caribbean through
Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain
over the central Caribbean through the week, with locally strong
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W, an area of enhanced upper-level divergence is
over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 20N-31N between 70W-80W. In the western Atlantic, a weak
stationary front extends southeast from a 1018 mb low pressure
centered near 31N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
seen within 60 nm east of the front. To the east, two troughs
are present from 28N65W to 21N70W and a second trough near
31N57W to 25N61W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both
troughs.

For the forecast west of 70W, a stationary front will remain
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast through Tue night. Low
pressure along the front will track far north of the area through
mid-week. A trough will trail from the low southward to near the
NW Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Before that happens, a trough,
both at the surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of
South Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with
ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions to
these waters through Wed. Central Atlantic high pressure will begin
to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu through Fri
night.

$$
MTorres
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