[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N-17N with axis along 35/36W,
moving  westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N-09N within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 45W, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N-10N within 120 nm behind and within 180 nm
ahead of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-16N with axis near 58W, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 07N-11N within 120 nm ahead and within
360 nm behind the wave axis. Enhanced shower activity is possible
over the southern Windward Islands tonight into early Monday.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 76W, moving
westward around 15 kt. Middle to low level dry air is preventing
any showers along or east of the wave axis. However, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection covers the Caribbean west
of the wave axis from 08N-19N between 77W-85W.

A tropical wave is along 88W south of 20N with axis moving into
the coast of Belize, extending southward to the east Pacific,
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N23W to 07N34W, then resumes from 06N38W to
05N44W, then resumes from 06N47W to 05N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is from 04N-10N between
13W-20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
generally within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 37W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-SW oriented upper-level trough covers the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from 19N91W to 25N94W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are seen near the surface trough axis, mainly north
of 22N. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are seen from
22.5N-28.5N between 84W-91W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to
moderate winds over most of the basin.

A surface trough will linger in the Yucatan peninsula and SW
basin through Mon night. Weak high pressure will dominate the
remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central
Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result
of these upper-level conditions and two tropical waves over the
western Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
covers the western Caribbean from 08N-22N between 76W-85W. Dry
Saharan Air covers the Caribbean to the east of 76W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the southern Caribbean, south
of 16N between 61W-76W, with locally strong trades south of 14N
between 65W-74W. Moderate trades are elsewhere south of 18N.

Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to
continue over the western Caribbean through early Mon as the
tropical wave along 76W moves through the area. This tropical
wave will move west of the basin Tue afternoon. Another tropical
wave will cross the Windward Islands this evening and move
across the eastern Caribbean through early Tue. It will move
across the western Caribbean Tue through Thu. Yet another
tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles early on Wed.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the
central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W...An area of enhanced upper-level divergence is
over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 21N-24N between 71W-75.5W, including the central and
southeastern Bahamas. A weak stationary front extends from
31N80W to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen from 23N-32N between 78W-81W,
including along the east coast of Florida and over the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast west of 70W...The stationary front will
remain offshore the SE U.S. coast through Tue night. Low
pressure will develop along the front on Mon and slowly
track well north of the area through mid-week. A trough will
trail from the low southward to near the NW Bahamas Wed
through Thu night. Before this happens, a trough, both at the
surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of South
Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with
ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions
to these waters through Wed.

Currently, east of 70W...A surface trough extends from 27N65W
to 21N71W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 24N-27N between 64W-68W. An upper-level low near
33N58W extends an upper-level trough to near 29N54W. A surface
trough in that area extends from 32N58W to 25N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 27N between 53W-58W. Farther
east, a cold front dips southward into the area from 32N27W
to 31N35W to 32N44W. Fresh NE winds are north of the front
between 34W-41W. Scattered showers are near the front. A 1021
mb high is near 27N28W.

$$
Hagen
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