[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
30N74W. off the coast of Florida near 29.5N75W. Gale-force winds
are noted in latest scatterometer data within 60 nm of the NW
quadrant of the low, with seas up to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to
decrease below gale force by 31/0000 UTC. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale-
force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are expected to develop
offshore of Veracruz Mexico by 1800 UTC on Fri evening. These
conditions will continue through the next 6 hours. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-
06N between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-
04S between 26W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
the section above for details.

Surface ridging is building across the basin in the wake of a
front that is currently over the western Caribbean. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds over the northern
half of the basin, while light to gentle winds prevail across the
southern half of the basin.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. A low will
form on the front over the NW Gulf on Fri, and move to the NE
Gulf Fri night. Increasing northerly winds and building seas are
expected across much of the basin through Sat night. A brief
period of gale-force NW winds will develop near the coast of
Veracruz on Fri evening west of the front. High pressure will pass
eastward across the northern Gulf Sun into early Mon. Southerly
return flow will strengthen off the Texas coast Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from southwest Cuba near 22N82W to the
coast of Belize near 17N88W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds
northwest of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail east
of the front. An area of moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
south-central Caribbean mainly south of 13n between 72W-77W.

Tradewinds will increase to fresh this weekend. Strong to near
gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia this
weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the
region. Winds and seas will increase across the NW Caribbean Sat
into Sun as the next cold front moves over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 30N74W with gale-force
winds. See the section above for details. A cold front extends
south from the low to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers are
within 75 nm of the low. Scattered moderate convection is E of
the front from 25N-31N between 60W-70W. A surface trough is noted
in scatterometer data extending from 28N63W to 24N64W. To the
east, the remnants of a cold front are depicted as a surface
trough, that extends from 28N44W to 23N59W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb
high pressure centered north of the area.

The gale low off will track eastward across the northern waters
through early Fri, with winds weakening below gale force by this
evening. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Sat
through Sun, resulting in near-gale force westerly winds and
building seas across the northern waters on Sun.

$$

ERA
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