[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Jan 31 00:07:04 CST 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 310606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
28N68W. Gale-force winds are noted in latest scatterometer data
within 60 nm of the NW quadrant of the low, with seas up to 12 ft.
Winds are forecast to decrease below gale force by 31/0000 UTC.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale-
force NW-N winds and seas up to 8 to 11 feet are expected to
develop offshore of Veracruz Mexico by Fri afternoon around
1800 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S-
00N between 26W-35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
along the coast of Brazil south 01N between 35W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
the section above for details.

Surface trough is seen from 29N91W to 24N97W in the NW Gulf.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW
Gulf behind the trough and light to moderate easterly winds.
Another trough is present in the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to
18N95W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough axis.
To the southeast, easterly light to gentle winds prevail across
the basin.

Low pres will develop over the N central Gulf Fri, then move E
across the NE Gulf Fri night. The low will drag a cold front
across the basin Fri through Sat. N winds and building seas will
follow across much of the basin through Sat night. A brief period
of gale force NW winds will develop near the coast of Veracruz Fri
afternoon W of the front. High pres will pass E across the
northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. Southerly return flow will
strengthen off the Texas coast Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from southwest Cuba near 22N81W to the
coast of Belize near 17N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds
behind the front, while light to gentle winds prevail east of the
front. An area of moderate to fresh winds prevail over the south-
central Caribbean mainly south of 13N.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia through the middle of next week as high pressure builds
north of the region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds
will increase to fresh speeds over the Caribbean this weekend.
Winds and seas will increase across the NW Caribbean Sat and Sun
as a cold front enters the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is forecast in the western Atlantic. See the
section above for details.

A weak 1013 mb low is seen 100 nm NE of the Bahamas near 28N75W.
To the east, a 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west
Atlantic near 28N68W with gale-force winds currently observed in
the latest ASCAT data. A cold front extends south from the low to
W Cuba near 22N79W. A warm front extends to the east to near
28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N to 31N
between 56W-64W. A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data
extending from 27N45W to 22N59W with scattered showers in the
vicinity of the trough axis. To the east, surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 26N32W. A surface trough is seen from 29N21W
to 21N21W. Scattered showers extend 60 nm on either side of the
trough north of 27N-30N.

Gale force low pres centered near 29N69W will track E and exit
the northern waters tonight. A strong cold front will sweep across
the region Sat through Sun, resulting in near gale force westerly
winds and building seas across the northern waters. High pressure
will move eastward across the northern waters Mon and Mon night.

$$
MMTorres
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