[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale-
force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are expected offshore of
Veracruz Mexico on 31/1800 UTC Fri evening. Gale-force winds are
forecast to last six hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

As of 30/1500 UTC a 1008 mb low is centered off the coast of
Florida near 29.5N75W. Gale-force winds are within 60 nm of the NW
quadrant with seas to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to be below gale
on 31/0000 UTC this evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-
06N between 07W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
03N-04S between 26W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
above.

A cold front is presently exiting the Straits of Florida. Radar
imagery shows lingering scattered showers over the Straits of
Florida. A 1016 mb high is centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico
near 22N93W. 10 kt winds are in the vicinity of the high. 15-20 kt
NE winds are over the NE Gulf. Radar imagery also shows scattered
showers along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W.
Broken high cloud is over the N Gulf N of 25N.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. A low will
form on the front over the NW Gulf on Fri, and move to the NE
Gulf Fri night. Increasing northerly winds and building seas are
expected across much of the basin through Sat night. A brief
period of gale force NW winds will develop near the coast of
Veracruz on Fri evening west of the front. High pressure will pass
eastward across the northern Gulf Sun into early Mon. Southerly
return flow will strengthen off the Texas coast Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 30/1500 UTC a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N81W to
the coast of Belize near 18N88W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front. Only 10 kt winds are noted along the front. 10-15
kt tradewinds are over the majority of the Caribbean, E of the
front.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 77W. The
remainder of the Caribbean has zonal flow. Very strong subsidence
overs the entire Caribbean.

Tradewinds will increase to fresh this weekend. Strong to near
gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia this
weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the
region. Winds and seas will increase across the NW Caribbean Sat
into Sun as a cold front moves over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 30/1500 UTC a 1008 mb low is centered off the coast of
Florida near 29.5N75W with gale force winds. See above. A cold
front extends S from the low to W Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the low. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the front from 25N-27N between 71W-75W. The
tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W
to 21N64W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1029
mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N09W.

Of note in the upper levels, a small trough is over the Canary
Islands producing showers.

A gale low off the coast of Florida near 29.5N75W will track
eastward across the northern waters through early Fri. Winds will
be below gale this evening. A strong cold front will sweep across
the region Sat through Sun, resulting in near gale force westerly
winds and building seas across the northern waters on Sun.

$$
Formosa
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