[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf Friday and pull
a cold front across the region through the weekend. Behind the
front, gale-force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are expected
offshore of Veracruz Mexico Saturday afternoon. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02S39W
to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen 300 nm south of the coastal section of Liberia
from 00N-06N between 07W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 05S-02N between 23W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
above.

A 1008 mb low pressure has moved off into the western Atlantic
to near 30N79W with a cold front extending SW across S Florida
into the Gulf of Mexico and across the Yucatan Channel. A surface
trough extends across central Florida westward to 28N89W. At this
time a few showers are in the vicinity of the trough, and
scattered showers and tstorms are present ahead of the front. A
1018 mb high pressure dominates the western Gulf with the latest
ASCAT data indicating strong NW winds covering the Gulf of Mexico
behind the front.

A surface trough across the NE Gulf will drift southward and
dissipate through early Fri. A low pressure system will develop
over the NW Gulf on Fri and extend a cold front across the region
through the weekend, resulting in increasing northerly winds and
building seas across much of the basin through Sat night. Near
gale force NW winds will develop near the coast of Veracruz on
Fri afternoon and continue through Fri night. High pressure will
build across the northern Gulf Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front enters the NW Caribbean from 21N84W to 19N87W, with
scattered showers and tstorms developing ahead of the front.
Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen over portions of
the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean E of 66W. Elsewhere,
relatively dry air covers the basin due to broad mid-level
ridging. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed morning shows
generally gentle winds across most of the basin.

Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds over most of the Caribbean through tonight.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.
Winds and seas will increase across the NW Caribbean Sat night and
Sun as a cold front moves into the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 30N78W with a cold front
extending southwest to S Florida near 26N80W, and a warm front
extending eastward to 29N75W. Scattered showers are occurring
over the western Atlantic along the Florida Straits into the NW
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N-31N
between 71W-77W. The low will move across the Atlantic then track
eastward through Thu night, bringing strong to near gale force
winds to the waters north of the northwest Bahamas.

Farther E, a surface trough is seen from 24N66W to 26N72W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis.
A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N41W to 22N56W.
Moderate convection is present from 27N to 31N between 31W-38W.
A surface trough continues beyond the cold front from 22N57W to
18N61W.

A low pressure system east of northern Florida will track eastward
across the northern waters through early Fri. A strong cold front
will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in near
gale force westerly winds and building seas across the northern
waters on Sun.

$$
MMTorres
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