[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N18W to 02S40W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 07W and 18W, and south of the ITCZ from 03S-
00N between 29W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 26N83W with a trailing
cold front extending SW through 23N86W, and weakens to 21N90W.
A warm front extending eastward near the FL coast. Scattered
showers are occurring in the vicinity of the front and the low
pressure centered. Elsewhere, ridge builds across the central
and western Gulf with benign weather. ASCAT data indicates
light to moderate northeast winds in the region. A surface trough
extends westward from the low pressure to 27N87W. No significant
convection is observed near the trough axis.

Low pressure of 1012 mb over the eastern Gulf will track east-
southeast, reaching S Florida this morning while the front sags S
and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas
coast tonight and weaken y the time it reaches the southeastern
Gulf Wed night ahead of a third cold front, that is forecast to
move across the Gulf waters Thu night through Sat night. This
front is expected to be followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light showers are streaming across the southwestern Caribbean from
12N-17N between 74W-83W. A surface trough was analyzed from 16N65W
to the central Atlantic. This is producing scattered showers over
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered showers are also present over
Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere across the basin, no significant
surface features were noted with only the occasional area of
isolated showers. Latest ASCAT data indicates light easterly
winds across the basin.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for
generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean
Sea. Winds will begin to increase across the south-central
Caribbean Thu night through Sat night, with strong to near gale
force winds near the coast of Colombia at that time. Winds may
possibly reach minimal gale force strength on Fri and Sat night
near the coast of NW Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A developing cold front has entered the forecast area in the
western Atlantic with a surface trough 80 nm ahead of the front.
Further east, a trough extends from 28N80W to 29N75W. A weak cold
front extends from near 31N58W to 25N69W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are present ahead of the trough from 20N-31N
between 69W-72W. Along the weakening front scattered showers are
still lingering along the boundary north of 25N to 31N and west
between 48W-62W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds were noted over
the offshore waters along with fairly low seas.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N34W
to 23N49W, and a second trough from 23N53W to 16N65W near the
U.S. Virgin Islands, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
along the trough.

The front will reach from near 31N70W to southeastern Florida
this morning, and from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas by
tonight. A low pressure system will move across northern Florida
Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night, then track east across the
area through Thu night. High pressure ridging will build across
the area in the wake of this system Fri and Fri night. Another low
pressure system is forecast to track northeastward along
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast from Fri through Sat
night. The trailing cold front will sweep across the western and
central forecast waters with fresh to strong winds east and west
of it. Winds may reach near gale force north 30N and east of 70W
on Sat and Sat night.

$$
MMTorres
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