[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Senegal near 13N16W
to 03N22W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N22W to 02S41W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator
to 05N between 07W and 21W, and south of the ITCZ from 03S-00N
between 21W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27N83W with a trailing
cold front extending SW through 20N90W, and a warm front extending
eastward to near Tampa Bay, Florida. Scattered showers are occurring
E of the front E of 87W in the SE Gulf to across the Straits of
Florida, while earlier thunderstorms have dissipated. A surface
trough extends westward from the low pressure to 27N86W. No
significant convection is observed near the trough axis. An area
of moderate to fresh winds were noted N side of the low, with
mainly light winds elsewhere behind the front.

Low pressure will track eastward through tonight, then east-southeast,
reaching S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly
dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue
night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night
ahead of a third cold front, forecast to move across the Gulf waters
Thu night through late Sat. It is expected to be followed by fresh
to strong northerly winds and building seas to near 10 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light showers are streaming across the southwestern Caribbean from
12N-17N between 74W-83W. A surface trough was analyzed south of PR
NE across the U.S. Virgin Islands into the central Atlantic. An
area of light to moderate showers are near the trough axis. Some
scattered showers were also noted over Cuba and Hispaniola.
Elsewhere across the basin, no significant surface features were
noted with only the occasional area of isolated showers.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for
generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean
Sea. Winds will begin to increase across the south-central
Caribbean Thu night through Sat night, with strong to near gale
force winds near the coast of Colombia at that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A developing cold front has entered the forecast area in the
western Atlantic with a surface trough 100 nm ahead of the
front. Further east, a trough extends from NW Bahamas to 28N68W.
A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to 25N69W, with showers
noted in the vicinity of the trough from the Bahamas eastward to
30N54W. This is associated to the trough and the cold front near
the area. This front will slowly move E while dissipating. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds were noted over the offshore waters along
with fairly low seas.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to
the U.S. Virgin Islands with scattered showers and thunderstorms
noted N of 18N to 27N. North of 27N, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen between 33W-38W. A 1026 mb high pressure
was analyzed to the east near 31N17W.

Winds will begin to increase across the northern forecast waters
later tonight as a cold front reaches the area. The front will
extend from 31N70W to SE Florida by Tue morning, and from 31N60W
to the central Bahamas by Tue night. A low pressure system will
move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night,
then track east across the area through Thu night. A ridge is
forecast to dominate the area Fri and Fri night. Another low
pressure system moving along the coast from Georgia to the
Carolinas is forecast to bring fresh to strong southerly winds
across the NW waters Fri night into Sat.

$$
MMTorres
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