[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 07N18W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 03N22W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 03S38W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 03N to 06N between 11W and 15W, within 100 nm to the south
of the ITCZ between 19W and 21W, and from the ITCZ southward
between 23W and 25W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The earlier 1012 mb low pressure and frontal boundaries have
weakened and dissipated during the last 6 hours. A surface
trough extends from the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of
Florida, to 23N87W. Broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 22N to 24N from 88W eastward.

A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb Deep South Texas low
pressure center, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to
20N96W, and to the coast of Mexico near 18.5N92W. Broken
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the SW of
the line that runs from the coastal border of Texas and Mexico
to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

The current weak SE Gulf of Mexico surface trough will dissipate
later today or tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas
coast tonight, and it will move E across the Gulf of Mexico
through Wednesday. Weak low pressure will develop in the NE Gulf
on Wednesday, and it will move quickly across northern Florida.
It is possible that a stationary front may linger in the
northern Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday night into Thursday. A
second cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico from
Thursday night through Saturday. The second front will be
accompanied by fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas. It is possible that northerly winds may reach minimal gale
force in the far west central waters to the west of 96W, and in
the SW Gulf of Mexico, from Friday into Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean
Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb also shows anticyclonic wind flow
across the entire area.

Convective debris clouds cover the SW corner of the area, from
13N southward from 75W westward. The precipitation originally
was on the Pacific Ocean side of Costa Rica and Panama. The
clouds have moved across land, and into the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.26 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.08 in St. Thomas in the Virgin
Islands, and a trace in Guadeloupe.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
generally gentle to moderate wind speeds across most of the
Caribbean Sea during the next several days. The wind speeds will
increase across the south central Caribbean Sea, from Thursday
night through Saturday night. Strong to near gale-force winds
will be developing near the coast of Colombia. It is possible
that the wind speeds may pulse to minimal gale-force on Friday
night and on Saturday night, near the coast of NW Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N56W to 26N70W, to the
northern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers,
are within 900 nm to the east of the cold front, from 24N
northward.

A cold front passes through 32N67W, to 30N71W, 29N75W, to 28N80W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 27N
northward from 61W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.06 in Bermuda.

The current 32N67W-to-28N80W cold front is accompanied by fresh-
to-strong winds on either side of the front in the northern
waters. The front will reach from near 31N61W to the central
Bahamas tonight, and then pass to the east of the forecast
waters on Wednesday. A low pressure center will move across
northern Florida on Wednesday. The low pressure center will
emerge off the NE Florida coast on Wednesday night. The low
pressure center will move eastward across the area through
Thursday night. A second low pressure center will move NE, along
the eastern U.S.A. coast, from Friday through Saturday. The
trailing cold front will sweep across the area on Saturday and
Saturday night. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected
across the northern waters.

$$
mt
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