[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 05N09W then
continues to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03S-04N between 10W-37W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 01S-04N between 46W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the coast of Mississippi near
29N88W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico,
with weakest winds near the high center and strongest winds over
the NW Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW
Gulf.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W.
Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N of 24N, while strong
subsidence is over the S Gulf.

Weak high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward
through Mon as low pressure develops near the Texas coast by this
afternoon. The low pressure, along with a trailing cold front,
will track eastward to the NE Gulf through Mon afternoon while
weakening, then across Florida on Tue. Another weak low pressure
area will move into the NW Gulf Tue night, slowly move east-
southeastward through Wed night, then retreat to the northwest
thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a weakening stationary front is over the Leeward
Islands from 18N60W to 17N69W. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the front to include Puerto Rico and E Hispaniola.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coasts of Costa Rica,
Panama, and N Colombia.

A weakening stationary front to the south of Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands will dissipate this morning. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet
conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle
to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near the coast of
Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed,
increasing to fresh to strong speeds on Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to W Cuba near
23N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to the
Leeward Islands near 18N60W. Scattered showers are also within 60
nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 14N-
20N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this trough. To the
east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 31N23W.

The W Atlantic cold front will reach from near 31N69W to 26N73W,
where it will begin to dissipate to central Cuba by early tonight.
The remaining cold front portion north of 26N will move east of
65W early Mon. A series of cold fronts will move across the area
during the upcoming week. Expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the waters near the Bahamas and S Florida Mon
through Tue night, and possibly later in the week. Multi sets of
northerly swell will propagate through the NE portion of the basin
during this upcoming week, with the most significant one expected
Tue into early Wed.

$$
Formosa
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