[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 05N09W then
continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01N25W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection are from 00N-04N between 13W-27W, and from 01S-
05N between 44W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front had emerged off the coast of Texas
and extends from 29N95W to 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 28N94W to 23N98W, while a warm front extends from 28N92W
inland over southwestern Louisiana. Moderate west to northwest
winds are west of the pre-frontal trough. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are between the trough and 92W. Light to moderate
anticyclonic flow is over the remainder of the central and
eastern Gulf around high pressure centered over the southeastern
United States. The warm front and associated upper-level trough
are supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the north central Gulf N of 28N, and within 60 n mi of the pre-
frontal trough.

Low pressure along the coast of Texas will move eastward through
tonight across into the northern central Gulf, then southeast into
south Florida. A trailing frontal boundary will follow, and stall
from southwest Florida to the south central Gulf by early Tue,
before dissipating late Tue. The pattern will repeat by mid week
as a second low pressure and associated cold front moves off Texas
through the north central Gulf, and through south Florida by late
Wed. Looking ahead, the second front will stall and dissipate
over the southeast Gulf by late Thu, ahead of a third, weaker
front stalling over the northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except where
fresh northeasterly winds are occurring near the coast of
Colombia. A weak surface trough extends from 11N69W to 17N67W and
is supporting scattered showers within 90 n mi of the trough axis.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for
generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near
the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours
through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds on Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W
to Abaco Island, then transitions to a stationary front to the
northern coast of Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the front. Another cold front is over the central
Atlantic extending from 31N46W to 18N59W. Scattered showers are
also within 60 nm of this front. A surface trough is analyzed
along 54W from 15N- 20N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
this trough. To the east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a
1028 mb high centered near 30N22W.

The weak front extending from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas
and central Cuba will drift east and dissipate through Mon. A
series of cold fronts will move across the area during the
upcoming week. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
over the waters near the Bahamas and S Florida Mon through Tue
night, and possibly later in the week. Multiple sets of northerly
swell will propagate through the NE portion of the basin during
this upcoming week, with the most significant one expected Tue
into early Wed.

$$
Latto
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