[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 06N10W then
continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03S-04N between 10W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01S-05N between 40W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the coast of Mississippi near
30N89W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico,
with weakest winds near the high center and strongest winds over
the NW Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW
Gulf.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W.
Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N of 24N, while strong
subsidence is over the S Gulf.

Weak high pres ridging over the Gulf will shift E as developing
low pres over S Texas approaches the Gulf coast. The low and a
trailing cold front will move eastward into Gulf Sun through Mon,
gradually weakening over the eastern Gulf. Another weak low
pressure area will move into the NW Gulf Tue night, drifting E-SE
through Wed night, then retreating NW thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a weakening cold front extends from W Cuba near
23N81W to the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. No convection is
seen along the front. Further E, the tail end of a weakening
stationary front is over the Leeward Islands from 19N60W to
16N68W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front to
include Puerto Rico and E Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are along the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia.

The weakening stationary front south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands will gradually dissipate tonight. Benign marine conditions
will prevail the rest of the forecast period as a weak pressure
gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to W Cuba near
23N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to the Leeward
Islands near 19N60W. Scattered showers are also within 60 nm of
the front. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 14N-20N.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this trough. To the east,
a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered
near 30N28W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from Bermuda to
western Cuba on Sun, then dissipate Mon night. Another front will
move across S Florida and the Bahamas through early next week,
with yet another front by the end of next week. Meanwhile, several
sets of northerly swell will propagate through the NE portion of
the basin the next several days.

$$
Formosa
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