[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Sierra Leone near 08N13W,
then continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03S-05N between 18W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 25N80W to
22N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To the west,
a developing warm front is analyzed from 26N98W to 23N94W. This
feature is part of the surface low that will develop over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 hours. A surface ridge
is building across the northern portion of the basin, anchored by
a 1024 mb high centered near 33N90W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts mostly moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin.

The cold front will wash out tonight as another boundary continues
to develop to the W and lifts northward ahead of a low pressure
system moving off the Texas coast. The low and a trailing cold
front will move eastward into the SW Gulf Mon and weaken. Looking
ahead, another weak low pressure area will move into the NW Gulf
Tue night, drifting E-SE through Wed night, then retreating NW
thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a weakening stationary front is over the Leeward
Islands from 18N63W to 17N69W. The scattered showers associated
with this frontal boundary will continue to affect the area
through the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, two surface troughs have
been analyzed along 67W and 76W. These features are well noted in
satellite imagery. The tail end of a cold front over the SE Gulf
of Mexico is approaching the Yucatan Channel with scattered
showers. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin.

The weakening stationary front south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands will gradually dissipate tonight. Benign marine
conditions will prevail the rest of the forecast period as a weak
pressure gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to 25N80W with scattered showers.
To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W to 20N58W,
then becomes stationary to 18N63W. A surface trough is analyzed
along 54W from 14N-18N with scattered showers. To the east, a
surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
32N28W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from Bermuda to
western Cuba on Sun, then dissipate Mon night. Another front will
move across S Florida and the Bahamas through early next week,
with yet another front by the end of next week. Meanwhile, several
sets of northerly swell will propagate through the NE portion of
the basin the next several days.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net