[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N63W, in the western
Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure
center to 31N61W 28N59W 19N66W. The forecast is for the low
pressure center to deepen during the next few days, and to move
to the north of the forecast area, during the next 24 hours.
Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 18 feet
to 25 feet, from 30N to 31N between 63W and 66W, to the west of
the cold front, for the next 12 hours. A second area of gale-
force winds is to the east of the cold front, SE-to-S gale-force
winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 29N
to 31N between 55W and 57W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National
Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W
to 01N19W 01N28W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to the coastal
areas of Brazil near to 03S40W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate
to the southeast of the line that runs from 10N14W to 03N40W to
03N51W, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 07W
and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through S central Louisiana, to 26N94W in
the W central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.
A warm front passes through southern Mississippi, along the
coast of Florida, to 29N82W in north central Florida. A
stationary front continues from 29N82W to 29N81W, and then to
31N80W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate are to the east of the cold front.

The current cold front will stretch from N of Tampa Bay to the
Bay of Campeche on Friday evening. The front will move to the SE
of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday evening. Moderate to fresh N
winds are expected behind the front. The next cold front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and shifting
across the basin through early next week. It is possible that a
low pressure center may develop along this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 20N65W, to
the SE part of the Dominican Republic, and to the southern
shores near 18N70W. A warm front continues from 18N70W to a 1009
mb low pressure center that is just offshore the SW corner of
the Dominican Republic. A cold front continues from the 1009 mb
low pressure center, to 11N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 18N to 21N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W in the
Atlantic Ocean and the Windward Passage.

The current cold front will stall gradually, and dissipate
through Friday. Benign marine conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the forecast period as a weak pressure gradient
dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N63W, in the western
Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure
center to 31N61W 28N59W 19N66W. Gale-force winds are in two
areas, one on either side of the cold front. Please read the
Special Features section for details about the gale-force winds.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong within 200 nm to 660 nm to the east of the cold
front from 21N northward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 24/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in Bermuda.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 30N northward from 25W eastward. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 22N32W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area that is from 14N to 30N between 20W and
46W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong from 21N to 26N between 28W and 34W.

A cold front in the SE part of the basin from 22N63W to the N
coast of Puerto Rico will weaken as it sinks SE through Friday.
This front extends from 1004 mb low pressure center that is near
29N63W. Associated gale-force winds that were to the W of the
low have shifted just E of the offshore waters. Lingering fresh
to strong winds behind the front will diminish gradually through
Friday. Associated very large seas continue to propagate SE,
subsiding this weekend. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S.A. coast on Saturday morning. The front will reach from
Bermuda across the central Bahamas to western Cuba by Sunday.
This front should pass through the northern parts of the area
into Monday. It is possible that a weak low pressure center and
cold front may move into the area from the SE Gulf of Mexico
early next week.

$$
mt
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