[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 29N64W. An occluded front
extends from the low to a triple point near 31N61W. A cold front
extends from 31N61W to 23N62W to 19N68W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows a large area of 35-40 kt gales north and west of the low,
north of 28N and east of 68W. There is also a small area of gales
along the cold front north of 28N. The forecast is for the low
pressure to move slowly northeastward and north of the area during
the next 24 hours. From now until 0600 UTC Friday, gales are
forecast for the area north of 28N between 61W-68W, but near gales
along the cold front will extend as far east as 55W. Seas of 17
to 24 ft are expected in the area. See the latest NWS High Seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02N26W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated convection is along
the ITCZ and monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 23/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the central Louisiana
coast near 30N92W southwest to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A
warm front stretches from the SE Louisiana coast to central
Florida, from 30N89W to 29N83W. A pre- frontal surface trough
extends from 25N95W to 29N91W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 24N- 29N between 89W-95W. The latest ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong S winds east of the surface trough and south of
the warm front, north of 26N. Fresh to strong E to SE winds cover
portions of the NE Gulf. Gentle winds are in the south- central
Gulf.

A cold front extending from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico will
stretch from N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche, and then move
SE of the Gulf Saturday evening. Fresh N winds are expected
behind the front. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf by Sunday, shifting across the basin through early next
week. Low pressure may develop along this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern Dominican Republic
to Panama, from 18N69W to 15N75W to 09N79W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Scattered showers are
noted across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The latest ASCAT
pass shows moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front
across the west-central Caribbean and light to gentle trades in
the eastern basin. Gentle trades are also noted in the NW
Caribbean.

The northern portion of the front will continue moving eastward
and will stall across the Virgin Islands on Friday. The southern
portion of the front will stall tonight and dissipate. Friday
through early next week, benign marine conditions will prevail as
a weak pressure gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect north of 28N between 60W-68W. See
section above for details.

See the Special Features section for the location of the fronts in
the western and central Atlantic. A trough extends from the 1002
mb low from 30N64W to 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 22N-31N between 50W-61W.

An upper level low is located near 24N33W. At the surface, a 1015
mb low is analyzed in the central Atlantic near 26N36W with a
trough extending from the low to 23N33W to 15N38W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 22N-27N between 29W-34W. Another
1015 mb low is near 24N41W with a trough stretching west of the
low to 26N48W. No significant convection is associated with it.
Isolated thunderstorms are observed north of the Cabo Verde
Islands from 17N-20N between 19W-26W.

Gales west of the 1002 mb low will diminish late tonight while
fresh to strong winds elsewhere NW of the frontal trough,
diminishing through Friday night. Very large seas associated with
this system will propagate across much of the SW N Atlantic
through Friday, then slowly subside this weekend. A cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast Saturday morning, then reach from
Bermuda across the central Bahamas to western Cuba by Sunday.
This front should pass through the northern portions of the area
into Monday. A weak low and attendant front will move into the
area from the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

$$
AKR
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