[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, 09N16W, and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W
to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to the coastal areas
of Brazil near to 03S40W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate from
05N southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center, that is
near Gulfport Mississippi, to 27N90W, and to 23N96W. A surface
trough continues from 23N96W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to 18.5N95.5W. A stationary front extends from the
Gulfport Mississippi 1013 mb low pressure center, to the Florida
Big Bend, to north central Florida near 29N82W, and to 31N79W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate are to the east and southeast of the cold
front, and extending to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.

The current cold front will stretch from northern Florida to
Veracruz Mexico tonight, and then move SE of the Gulf of Mexico
early on Sunday. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, with a low pressure center developing
along the front in the western Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure
center will shift eastward along the front, across the basin,
through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 23N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
18N64W in the islands that are just to the east of Puerto Rico,
continuing to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea, just to the south of
the Dominican Republic. A surface trough is along 18N71W, at the
SW part of the Dominican Republic, to 15N72W and 12N74W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from the surface trough and
cold front eastward.

The weakening front that is to the S of Puerto Rico will stall
and dissipate later today. Benign marine conditions will prevail
during the rest of the week, as a weak pressure gradient
dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N61W, in the western
Atlantic Ocean. An occluded front curves to 33N61W, at the
triple point. A cold front extends from the triple point to
30N58W 23N60W, to 18N64W in the islands that are to the east of
Puerto Rico, continuing to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea, just to
the south of the Dominican Republic. A surface trough is along
18N71W, at the SW part of the Dominican Republic, to 15N72W and
12N74W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong within 720 nm to the east of the cold front
from 22N northward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for
the period that ended at 24/0000 UTC, according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC, are: 0.09 in Bermuda.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 30N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 25N34W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area that is to the north of the line that runs
from 12N23W to 20N43W to 30N48W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 21N to 26N between 29W and 32W.

The cold front that is near Puerto Rico will stall and weaken
later today. Lingering fresh northerly winds behind the front
will diminish gradually today. Large seas will continue to
propagate SE and subside this weekend. Another cold front will
move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday morning. The front will
reach from Bermuda to western Cuba on Sunday, and then weaken on
Monday. A weak low pressure center along a front will move
across south Florida to the Bahamas early next week.

$$
mt
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