[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM WARNING...

A 1004 mb low in the western Atlantic, located near 28N74W at
21/2100 UTC, will gradually weaken as another low farther east
will become the dominant feature and continue moving eastward. The
latest scatterometer data from 1300 UTC this morning showed storm
force winds near the low center from 28N-29N between 73W-76W.
These storm-force winds will end by 23/0000 UTC. Gale-force winds
are expected to continue across the western and central Atlantic
through 24/1200 UTC. Expect these gale-force winds to occur from
26N-31N between 78W-56W. Seas will range from 12-22 ft. See the
latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N32W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N-07N
between 11W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.
extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are entering
the NW Gulf ahead of an upper level trough. These showers are
noted from 27N-30N between 88W-96W. Otherwise, the rest of the
Gulf remains quiet. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong N winds in the eastern Gulf. Winds have began to veer to
the ESE in the central and western Gulf, with gentle easterly
winds in the central Gulf and fresh to strong SE winds in the
western Gulf near the Texas and northern Mexican coast.

High pressure extending from the SE United States southward to
the Yucatan Peninsula will slide E tonight with strong S return
flow over the western Gulf, persisting into Thursday. A cold front
will move off the Texas coast on Thursday night, and by Friday
evening this front will stretch from the Big Bend region of
Florida into the SW Gulf. This front will weaken and move SE of
the Gulf by Saturday night. High pressure will again extend
southward across the central Gulf on Sunday, shifting E into early
next week as low pressure and attendant frontal boundaries may
develop in the western and central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends southward into the northern
Caribbean across the western half of the Greater Antilles. At the
surface, a cold front enters the Caribbean from western Haiti
near 18N74W and stretches to the SW basin near 12N81W. Showers are
seen near this front. Showers are also noted across the Mona
Passage and Puerto Rico ahead of the front and upper trough. The
latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trade winds
across the central and eastern Caribbean. In the western Caribbean
behind the cold front, fresh to strong northern winds are seen,
especially of the southern coast of Cuba and off the eastern
coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

The cold front will reach from the eastern Dominican Republic to
central Costa Rica early Thursday, then stall from Puerto Rico to
eastern Panama from Thursday evening to Friday, weakening and
dissipating. Strong N winds and higher seas are expected W of the
front through tonight. N swell prevailing E of the Windward
Islands will subside tonight. For the weekend into early next
week, more benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure
gradient prevails over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 1004 mb low in the western Atlantic has a dying occlusion
extending eastward from the low to a 1007 mb low near 28N69W. The
1007 mb low is expected to become the dominant low over the next
few days. From that low, a cold front extends southward to
northern Haiti near 20N73W. A stationary front extends east of the
low to 31N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
east of the front from 22N-31N between 58W-68W. Near the 1007 mb
low, there is an area of strong convection from 27N-30N between
70W-72W.

Closer to the coast of Florida, a 1013 mb low is near 26N79W. A
dying stationary front extends north of the low to 31N79W to
36N74W. Showers from the stronger low east of the Bahamas is
bringing light showers across the Atlantic into central and
southern Florida. In the central Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is near
28N34W with a trough extending from the low to 18N36W. A shear
line begins from 18N36W to the Windward Islands near 14N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-31N between 28W-
36W. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving
across the Cabo Verde Islands to western Africa from 07N-19N
between 16W-32W.

Complex low pressure producing widespread gales, and
even minimal storm force near 29N75W, extends from the NW
Bahamas to near 28N69W. This elongated low pressure will shift
ESE and begin to consolidate and intensify tonight and Thursday
as it gradually moves NE and out of the area Friday. Strong gales
to near storm force will prevail N through W of the low pressure
through tonight, spreading westward into the central and SE
Florida coastal waters and across the NW Bahamas to 25N. Gales
will continue and expand to the E as the low moves away from the
Bahamas. An associated cold front extending from 29N69W to the N
coast of Haiti will stretch from S of Bermuda through Hispaniola
this evening, then stall over the far SE waters and Puerto Rico
Thursday night into Friday.

$$
AKR
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