[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1003 mb low pressure center is near 27.5N66.5W, in the western
Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure
center to 20N70W. The forecast is for the low pressure center to
deepen during the next few days, and to move to the north of the
forecast area, at 24 hours. Expect N-to-NE gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 21 feet, from 28N to 31N
between 63W and 75W, for the next 24 hours. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National
Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 06N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to
01N20W, to 02N34W, and to 01N37W. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward
between 05W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle and the
Florida Big Bend, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, beyond
the Yucatan Chanel, and into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure, extending from the SE United States southward to
the Yucatan Peninsula, will slide E tonight with strong S return
flow in the western Gulf of Mexico, persisting into Thursday.
A cold front will move off the TX coast on Thursday night,
stretching from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Friday
evening, weakening as it moves SE of the Gulf by Saturday night.
High pressure again will extend southward across the central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The high pressure will shift E into
early next week, as low pressure and attendant frontal
boundaries may develop in the western and central sections
of the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through central Hispaniola, to 15N76W, to
the border area of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the northwest of the
front, and elsewhere between 70W and 80W in the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front, will extend from near the Mona Passage
to western Panama by early Thursday. The front will weaken, as
it stalls from near Puerto Rico to eastern Panama on Thursday
night. Fresh to strong N winds and higher seas are expected to
the W of the front through later tonight. N swell prevailing E
of the Windward Islands will subside later tonight. More benign
conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient prevails in
the area, for the weekend into early next week

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 30N63W. The front is
stationary from 30N63W to a triple point that is near 28N72W.
A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W. An occluded front
extends from the low pressure center to 28N72W. A cold front
continues from the triple point, across the central Bahamas and
SE Cuba, to north central Nicaragua. A surface trough is 330 nm
to the E of the cold front, from Hispaniola to 26N.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, from 21N
northward from 54W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.20 in Bermuda.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area to the
north of the line that passes through 32N31W to the Canary
Islands. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
38N10W, off the coast of southern Portugal. A second upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 26N35W, about 900 nm to the
west of the Canary Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic
center to 10N35W. A surface trough curves away from a 1014 mb
low pressure center, that is near 28N34W, to 26N31W, and to
18N37W. A shear line continues from 18N37W, to 11N50W, and to
St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the SE Caribbean Sea islands.
A second surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N41W, to 25N44W, and to 26N47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
24N to 30N between 29W and 36W.

A complex low pressure center, to the NE of the Bahamas,
supports a large area of gale force winds to the NE of the
Bahamas. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, SW,
to Hispaniola. The low and associated gale-force winds will
shift to the east of the offshore waters basin, gradually,
through early Friday. Very large seas associated with the low
pressure center will dominate the basin through the end of the
week, gradually subsiding this weekend. The next cold front will
move off NE Florida early on Saturday, extending from 31N69W to
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida early on Sunday,
shifting E through early next week.

$$
mt
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