[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM WARNING...

As of 22/1500 UTC, latest ASCAT data indicated wind observation
reaching storm force winds west of the 1007 mb low pressure near
28N73W. The Gale Warning in effect has been upgraded to a Storm
Warning as of 1500 UTC. This complex low pressure is producing
widespread gales extends from west of 74W to the NW Bahamas and
the coast of Florida. This elongated low pressure will shift ESE
across the N Bahamas today, then consolidate and intensify as a
broad low moves NE tonight and Thu. The storm force winds will
continue through this evening, then lowered to gale force late
tonight into early Thursday and expand to the E as the low moves
away from the Bahamas. The low should be moving out of the area
by the end of the week. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low
pressure center having moved eastward by about 600 nm, gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 18 feet to 24 feet, from 30N
to 31N between 60W and 73W. Please read the See the latest NWS
Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 04N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near
02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is present on either side
of the monsoon trough from the Equator to 09N along the coast of
Guinea south to Liberia to 23W. Scattered showers are seen north
of the ITCZ from 04N-10N between 16W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh SE
winds across the western Gulf west of 92W and N near the coast
of Florida. Overcast skies are present with stratus clouds
streaming across the NW Gulf. Latest radar scans show light to
moderate showers occurring near the coast of Texas to Louisiana
including the coastal sections in the region.

High pressure building southward across the Gulf behind a NW
Caribbean cold front will allow winds to gradually decrease over
the eastern Gulf today. As the high slides east tonight, strong S
and SE winds will develop over the NW Gulf. This return flow will
persist into Thu, ahead of a cold front that will move off the TX
coast Thu night. By Fri evening, this front will stretch from the
Big Bend region of Florida into the SW Gulf. This front will
weaken and move SE of the Gulf by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean across the
Windward Passage near 19N74W to to central Nicaragua. Scattered
showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the boundary. ASCAT
data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front and
lighter winds ahead of the front. To the east, light to moderate
easterly trades prevail.

The cold front will reach a Hispaniola to central Costa Rica line
by this evening, then stall from Puerto Rico to eastern Panama
Thu evening to Fri, then weaken and dissipate. Strong N winds and
higher seas are expected W of the front through tonight. N swell
prevailing E of the Windward Islands will diminish today. For the
weekend, more benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure
gradient prevails over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A very clomplex set up is in place over the western Atlantic
Ocean, with a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 28N73W and a
second low pressure centered north of the Bahamas near 27N78W.
An occluded front extend north of the low near FL to the low to
further east. A cold front extend south of the 1007 mb low across
the southern Bahamas into the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with the first low and east of the cold
front. A few showers are noticeable near the coast of north and
central Florida west of 78W. Scatterometer shows gale to storm
force winds across the region west of 73W with a Storm Warning
currently in effect as of 22/15 UTC. A stationary front extends
to the east to near 27N65W to 30N59W with moderate convection
from 27N-31N between 59W to 67W.

Further east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 27N40W
with shallow showers near the centered of the low. A 1016 mb low
is also visible near 28N33W with a surface trough to 16N37W. There
is an area of scattered moderate convection from 25N-31N between
28W-37W. A shear line extends from 16N37W to 13N61W with scattered
showers in the vicinity of the line.

Complex low pressure producing widespread gales extends from the
NW Bahamas this morning to near 29N74W. This elongated low
pressure will shift ESE across the N Bahamas today, then begin to
consolidate and intensify as a broad low moves NE tonight and Thu
and out of the area Fri. Strong gales to near storm force will
prevail N through W of the low pressure through tonight, spreading
westward into the central and SE Florida coastal waters and
across the NW Bahamas to 25N. Gales will continue Thu and expand
to the E as the low moves away from the Bahamas. An associated
cold front extends from 28N70W to the Windward Passage this
morning, and will stretch from S of Bermuda through Hispaniola
this evening, then stall over the far SE waters and Puerto Rico
Thu night into Fri.

$$
Torres
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