[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet
to 13 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Expect that gale-force NE
to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, in
more or less the same areas, will be pulsing during the late
night and early morning hours, until at least Friday night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to
03N23W, to the Equator along 30W, to 02N36W, and to 01N40W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
13W and 21W. Isolated moderate from 06N from 24W westward, and
to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 26W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 29N74W, across Florida,into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

Areas of dense fog will persist within 30 nm of shore between
Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi until mid morning
on Thursday. Weak ridging extends SW in the Gulf of Mexico, from
the SE United States. A cold front will move S in the NE Gulf on
Thursday evening, become stationary in the NE Gulf on Friday
afternoon, and then dissipate late on Saturday. Weak SE return
flow will set up across the basin in advance of the next cold
front, that will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night. The front will extend from the Big Bend coast of Florida
to near Tampico Mexico on Sunday afternoon; and from the Florida
Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the Caribbean Sea, except for the area that is about
180 nm to the south of the Greater Antilles and in the SE corner
of the area. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken
to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, in many
sections of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the area will help maintain
evening-to-early morning NE gale-force winds in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Sunday morning. NE swell will continue to
support high seas in the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser
Antilles through Thu. A cold front will reach the tropical N
Atlantic Sat and usher in a new round of large long period N
swell along with strong winds. Strong winds east of the Leeward
Islands will diminish Mon morning while the swell component will
continue to spread S and subside by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N
northward between the Madeira Archipelago and 55W. Frontal
boundaries are a bit to the north of 32N between 20W and 50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
32N to 33N between 60W and 65W. Scattered to broken high level
clouds are from 26N northward between 54W and 63W, and elsewhere
from 30N northward from 54W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 32N12W, across the Canary
Islands, to 28N20W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is
near 26N40W. The ridge continues from 26N40W, to a 1025 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N66W, and continuing to a second
1025 mb high pressure center that is near 29N74W.

Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 125 nm on either
side of the line from the coastal waters of NE Venezuela near
10N61W to 14N44W to 15N28W, and within 225 nm to 325 nm on
either side of the line from 13N29W, crossing the Cabo Verde
Islands, beyond 17N16W, into Africa.

High pressure N of the area will maintain evening to early
morning NE gales over the S central Caribbean through Sun
morning. NE swell will continue to support high seas in the
Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold
front will reach the tropical N Atlantic Sat and usher in a new
round of large long period N swell along with strong winds.
Strong winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish Mon
morning while the swell component will continue to spread S and
subside by the middle of the week.

$$
mt
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