[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 18-hour forecast, starting at 16/0600 UTC, consists of NE
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14
feet, from 10.5N to 13N between 72W and 78W. The gale-force
winds are forecast to continue until at least Friday night. The
sea heights will range from 10 feet to 17 feet until Friday
night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian to 03N10W,
to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to the Equator along
24W, to the Equator along 36W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is to the south of the line that extends from 10N14W to 06N22W
to 07N50W and 05N53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 28N78W, across Florida, into north
central Florida, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Areas of dense fog will persist in the coastal waters to the
west of the Big Bend of Florida this morning. An Atlantic cold
front will extend into the NE Gulf on Friday and Saturday. A
second cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night. The cold front will extend from northern Florida to near
Tampico Mexico on Sunday evening, and from the Florida Straits
to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the Caribbean Sea, except for the area that is about
180 nm to the south of the Greater Antilles and in the SE corner
of the area. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken
to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, in many
sections of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the area will support winds to
gale-force near the coast of Colombia through Sunday morning. A
cold front will reach Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands on
Saturday night. The cold front will be accompanied by strong NE
winds and large seas to 16 feet. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will diminish east of the Leeward Islands on Monday and
Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N
northward between the Madeira Archipelago and 60W. Frontal
boundaries are along 31N/32N between 33W and 43W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 30N northward between 55W and 63W, and
from 30N northward from 36W eastward.

A surface ridge passes from the Canary Islands, to 27N30W, to a
1024 mb high pressure center that is near 27N40W. The ridge
continues from 27N40W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is
near 28N65W, and continuing to a 1026 mb high pressure center
that is near 28N78W.

A strong cold front entering the northern waters tonight, will
extend from 28N65W to southern Florida on Friday, and from
22N60W to Hispaniola on Saturday. It will bring strong winds and
large seas to 16 feet across the region through Saturday night.
A second cold front will enter the NW waters on Sunday night.

$$
mt
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