[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect gale-force winds to resume north of Colombia tonight and
continue to pulse through Thursday night. Seas will range between
9 to 13 feet in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 04N08W to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 02S41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N and east of
25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping
conditions tranquil. A surface trough is noted in the western Bay
of Campeche along the coastline from 18N-21N. The latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across
the basin.

Areas of dense fog will persist within 30 nm of shore
between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi until mid
morning Thu. Weak ridging extends SW over the Gulf from the SE
United States. A cold front will move S over the NE Gulf Thu
evening, become stationary in the NE Gulf Fri afternoon, then
dissipate late on Sat. Afterwards, weak SE return flow will set up
across the basin ahead of the next cold front entering the NW
Gulf Sat night. The front should extend from the Big Bend coast of
Florida to near Tampico Sun afternoon and from the Florida Straits
to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

An upper-level trough extends across the central Caribbean. This
feature, along with a plume of moisture in the area, is setting
off scattered showers across the eastern half of the basin.
Scattered showers are also moving into the far west Caribbean
from the Gulf of Honduras southward into Costa Rica. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades continuing
across the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades with
occasional strong winds are noted throughout the rest of the
basin.

The strong Bermuda High N of the area will maintain evening to
early morning NE gales over S central Caribbean through Sun
morning. A long fetch of fresh to strong trades over the tropical
N Atlantic is combining with N swell to produce high seas in the
Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles. The trades and
associated seas will diminish Thu. A cold front will reach the
tropical N Atlantic on Sat, and usher in a new round of large
long period N swell. This swell will start subsiding by Mon
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 28N72W, a 1024 mb high near 28N66W, a 1023 mb high near
28N51W, and a 1022 mb high near 27N23W. A surface trough is
analyzed along the African coastline from 25N15W to 17N15W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across
the basin mainly north of 22N, while moderate to fresh winds are
noted south of 22N.

The strong Bermuda High over the W Atlantic will maintain
moderate to strong trades and some N swell south of 22N through
Thu. A cold front will enter the N waters by Thu evening and
progress south-southeast before dissipating just N of Puerto Rico
Sat evening. Strong winds and high seas will follow the front and
prevail across the southern waters through Sat night. A new cold
front will enter the NW waters Sun night with strong winds
affecting the waters N of 28N through Mon night.

$$

ERA
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