[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet
to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Expect gale-force NE to E
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet, in more
or less the same areas, until at least Wednesday night. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The forecast conditions for the next 24 hours: Expect fresh to
near gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to
13 feet, from 14N to 24N between 53W and 74W. Expect fresh
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet,
elsewhere, from 07N to 31N between 35W and 79W. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from
the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 32N60W in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 240 nm to the E of Bermuda.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W, to
01N20W and 01N25W. A surface trough is along 26W/27W, from 04N
southward. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W, crossing the Equator
along 31W, to 04S39W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N southward from
40W eastward. Isolated moderate from 12N southward between 50W
and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from
the Florida Panhandle/SW Mississippi, through Louisiana, to 27N
along the coast of Texas. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing
high level moisture from Mexico to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area. The trough
extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
northwestward to 24N97W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 21N southward between 92W and 97W.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N83W, along the west
coast of Florida.

The current 1026 mb high pressure center will build through the
entire northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. A cold front
will move southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
The front will become stationary on Friday night, and it will
dissipate by Saturday. A surface ridge will build southward, and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will move to the
east of the area on Saturday night, as a new cold front enters
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Mainly fresh northerly winds
are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that passes through the Windward Passage, to Jamaica,
beyond Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
17N to Cuba between 77W and 83W.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level
clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for the areas that are
from 13N southward between 74W and 79W.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 14/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.30 in Guadeloupe, and 0.30 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea into early Wednesday morning. It is possible that the wind
speeds may pulse to gale-force, during the overnight hours, off
the coast of Colombia, from Wednesday through Saturday night.
Strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds will continue in the
forecast waters through early Saturday. This will include the
waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and vicinity and the
waters to the lee of Cuba. Large sea heights, in long-period NE
swell, will continue in the region through Wednesday. It is
possible that large sea heights may redevelop as early as Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through a 32N18W cyclonic
circulation center, to 27N26W, to a 21N38W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N63W, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea. A stationary
front passes through 32N28W to 27N42W. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate is from 13N to 22N between 53W and
65W. Isolated moderate within 60 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the Madeira
Archipelago. A surface trough is along 30N17W 25N19W 21N20W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N to 34N between 10W and
20W.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 32N60W, about 240 nm to
the E of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the stationary front
and the 32N18W 21N38W 17N70W upper level trough.

Strong high pressure in the western and central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the
south of 27N through Tuesday. Near gale-force winds are expected
near the Approaches to the Windward Passage. Large sea heights,
in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the region
into Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish, from late
Wednesday through Thursday, as the high pressure that is in the
western Atlantic Ocean weakens, while moving eastward slowly.
A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late
on Thursday afternoon, and continue southward through Friday
night. This cold front will be followed by fresh to strong N
winds and building sea heights.

$$
mt
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